大越期货棉花早报-20260303

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term bullish factors of Zhengzhou cotton are concentrated, and the market needs adjustment. Fundamentally, the traditional peak seasons of "Golden March and Silver April" are coming, the US tariffs have been reduced, and Sino - US relations have eased, which is beneficial to textile exports. Cotton will fluctuate and adjust, and the main contract 05 should pay attention to the support around 15,000 [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - No information provided in the report 3.2. Daily Tips - Fundamentals: In 2026, the planting area of Xinjiang cotton is regulated, with an expected reduction of over 10%. According to the USDA February report, the output in the 2025/2026 season is 26.096 million tons, consumption is 25.847 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.353 million tons. In December, textile and clothing exports were $25.99 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 7.4%. In December, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 31%; imported 170,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 13.33%. According to the Ministry of Agriculture's February forecast for the 2025/2026 season, the output is 6.64 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.29 million tons [4]. - Basis: The national average price of spot 3128b is 16,633, and the basis is 1408 (05 contract), with the spot at a premium to the futures [4]. - Inventory: The Ministry of Agriculture of China estimates the ending inventory in the 2025/2026 season to be 8.29 million tons [4]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average [4]. - Main Position: The position is bullish, the net long position increases, and the main trend is unclear [4]. - Expectation: Zhengzhou cotton's short - term bullish factors are concentrated, and the market needs adjustment. Fundamentally, the traditional peak seasons of "Golden March and Silver April" are coming, the US tariffs have been reduced, and Sino - US relations have eased, which is beneficial to textile exports. Cotton will fluctuate and adjust, and the main contract 05 should pay attention to the support around 15,000 [4]. 3.3. Today's Concerns - Bullish Factors: In 2026, the planting area of Xinjiang cotton is regulated, with an expected reduction of over 10%. Downstream replenished inventory before the Spring Festival. The export tariff to the US has been reduced. Sino - US relations have eased. The traditional peak seasons of "Golden March and Silver April" are coming [5]. - Bearish Factors: Overall foreign trade orders have decreased, and inventory has increased. A large amount of new cotton has been put on the market. Currently, it is the traditional off - season for consumption [6]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast: In the 2025/2026 season, the total global cotton output is 26.096 million tons, consumption is 25.847 million tons, imports are 9.516 million tons, exports are 9.517 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.353 million tons [9][10]. - ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast (November 2025): In the 2025/2026 season, the area is 30.41385 million hectares, the yield per unit area is 835.13 kg/ha, the output is 25.39956 million tons, the beginning inventory is 15.83577 million tons, imports are 9.71442 million tons, consumption is 25.00778 million tons, exports are 9.71412 million tons, the ending inventory is 16.22785 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 0.65 [12]. - China's Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast: In the 2025/2026 season, the beginning inventory is 7.88 million tons, the planting area is 2.979 million hectares, the yield per unit area is 2229 kg/ha, the output is 6.64 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.29 million tons. The domestic average price of cotton 3128B is 14,000 - 16,000 yuan/ton, and the Cotlook A index is 75 - 100 cents/pound [14]. 3.5. Position Data - No information provided in the report