大越期货豆粕早报-20260303

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For soybean meal (M2605): The market is expected to oscillate between 2,800 and 2,860. The US soybean market shows short - term strong fluctuations, and the domestic soybean meal market is affected by the US soybean trend and spot price premiums. With mixed news, it will likely maintain a range - bound pattern in the short term [9]. - For soybeans (A2605): The market is expected to fluctuate between 4,600 and 4,700. The US soybean market is subject to uncertainties in Sino - US trade relations and technical adjustments. The domestic soybean market will maintain a high - level shock due to factors such as expected increases in imported soybean arrivals and short - term good demand [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - No specific content for daily hints provided 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary Sino - US tariff negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of Chinese purchases of US soybeans and US soybean weather are still uncertain. The US market oscillates above the 1,000 - point mark in the short term [12]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China continues to decline in Q1. The soybean inventory in oil mills remains high in January. The planting and growing weather of South American soybeans is relatively normal, causing soybean meal to return to range - bound trading [12]. - Reduced domestic pig - raising profits lead to a low expectation of pig restocking. The demand for soybean meal remains low in March, suppressing price expectations. The market is affected by both the US soybean trend and weak demand, maintaining a range - bound pattern [12]. - The soybean meal inventory in domestic oil mills remains high. There is still a possibility of weather speculation in South American soybean - producing areas, and the preliminary Sino - US trade negotiation agreement has an impact. The short - term soybean meal market will maintain a range - bound pattern, waiting for the clarification of South American soybean yields and the follow - up of Sino - US trade negotiations [12]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - Positive factors: The preliminary Sino - US trade negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans. The soybean meal inventory in domestic oil mills has no pressure. There are still uncertainties in the weather of South American soybean - producing areas [13]. - Negative factors: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in March remains high. The harvesting of Brazilian soybeans is advancing, and South American soybeans are expected to have a good harvest under normal weather conditions [13]. - Main logic: The market focuses on the impact of South American soybean harvesting weather and the follow - up of the preliminary Sino - US trade agreement [13]. Soybeans - Positive factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market. The expected recovery in domestic soybean demand supports price expectations [14]. - Negative factors: The good harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased purchases of Brazilian soybeans. The increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses price expectations [14]. - Main logic: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Soybean meal trading data: From February 12 to March 2, the成交均价 of soybean meal fluctuated around 3,100 - 3,200 yuan/ton, and the trading volume also showed fluctuations, with a maximum of 10.52 million tons on February 25 [15]. - Soybean and soybean meal price data: From February 13 to March 2, the futures prices of soybeans (both No. 1 and No. 2) and soybean meal showed fluctuations. The spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal also had corresponding changes [17]. - Soybean and meal - type warehouse receipt data: From February 12 to March 2, the warehouse receipts of soybeans (both No. 1 and No. 2) and soybean meal changed. For example, the soybean No. 1 warehouse receipts decreased by 200 on March 2 compared to the previous day, and the soybean meal warehouse receipts increased by 2,313 on February 27 [19]. - Soybean supply - demand balance sheets: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2016 - 2025 are presented, including data on harvest area, initial inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [31][32]. - Soybean planting and harvesting progress: The planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in Argentina (2023/24, 2024/25, 2025/26), the US (2024), and Brazil (2024/25, 2025/26) are provided, showing the comparison with the same period last year and the five - year average [33][34][35][38][41]. 3.5 Position Data - No specific content for position data provided 3.6 Other Market Data - The weekly export inspection of US soybeans decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year [44]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans increased from a low level and also increased year - on - year [46]. - The soybean inventory in oil mills continued to decline, while the soybean meal inventory remained high [49]. - The soybean crushing volume in oil mills dropped to a low level, and the soybean meal production in December increased year - on - year [51]. - The unfulfilled contracts in oil mills fluctuated slightly, and the short - term stocking demand weakened [53]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans fluctuated downward following the US soybean market, and the on - paper profit fluctuated slightly [55]. - The pig inventory increased slightly year - on - year, while the sow inventory decreased year - on - year and declined slightly month - on - month [57]. - The pig price decreased slightly recently, and the piglet price fluctuated slightly [59]. - The proportion of large pigs in China decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs fluctuated slightly [61]. - The domestic pig - raising profit deficit widened [63]. - The pig - to - grain ratio and feed - to - meat ratio dropped to a low level [65].