贵金属日评-20260303

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the geopolitical risks in the Middle East are beneficial to the price of precious metals, but they are more phased. The precious metals sector has high volatility. It is recommended that investors participate in trading with a bullish mindset while strictly controlling their positions. In the long - term, the once - in - a - century changes and the Sino - US competition will continue to drive up the gold price [4]. - Affected by factors such as the chaotic international trade situation, the gloomy global economic growth prospects, the Fed's loose monetary policy, and rising geopolitical risks, the precious metals sector is expected to continue to move up strongly along the upward trend line since September 2025. However, historical experience shows that the rise in precious metals driven by geopolitical conflicts is often short - lived, and the volatility of the precious metals sector remains high. Investors are advised to continue to participate in trading with a bullish mindset while controlling their positions. Long - hedgers can seize the opportunity to establish hedging positions, and short - hedgers should appropriately reduce their hedging positions [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook Intraday Market - The US and Israel launched a fierce attack on Iran, killing many Iranian executives. Iran retaliated by air - raiding US and Israeli military bases and blocking the Strait of Hormuz. The geopolitical risks in the Middle East have sharply increased, causing international oil prices to soar by nearly 10%. Driven by safe - haven and anti - inflation demands, the price of London gold has broken through the $5400 per ounce mark [4]. - This week, attention should be paid to the development of the Iranian situation, the Two Sessions in China, and the US non - farm payrolls in February [4]. Medium - term Market - After a sharp decline at the end of January due to the Fed's suspension of interest rate cuts and Trump's nomination of a hawkish Fed chairman candidate, the precious metals sector showed a strong sign of stabilizing and rebounding in February. On February 20th, the US Federal Supreme Court ruled that the Trump administration had no right to impose tariffs under the IEEPA, and the international trade situation became turbulent again, pushing the international gold price to around $5200 per ounce. The geopolitical risks in the Middle East have further increased the safe - haven demand for precious metals [6]. Domestic Precious Metals Market Conditions | Contract | Previous Closing Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change (%) | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold Index | 1,150.38 | 1,199.70 | 1,151.37 | 1,199.64 | 4.28% | 309,821 | 7555 | | SHFE Silver Index | 22,852 | 24,194 | 22,822 | 24,170 | 5.77% | 530,068 | 5322 | | GZFE Platinum Index | 621.98 | 639.86 | 603.30 | 624.59 | 0.42% | 29,411 | 505 | | GZFE Palladium Index | 463.50 | 472.15 | 454.57 | 462.48 | - 0.22% | 9,198 | 208 | [5] Main Macro - Events/Data - The US International Trade Commission (USITC) will conduct an investigation to evaluate the economic impact of revoking China's Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) over a six - year period. The results will be announced before August 21st. It will also examine another scenario where if Congress revokes PNTR, partial tariffs will be gradually imposed on important products related to national security over five years [18]. - Oman, as a mediator, said that the US and Iran have made significant progress in negotiations aimed at resolving a long - standing nuclear dispute and avoiding new US military strikes. The two sides plan to return to their capitals for consultations and then resume negotiations as soon as possible, with technical - level discussions scheduled in Vienna next week [18]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US increased slightly by 4000 to 212,000 last week. With a stable labor market, the unemployment rate in February is expected to remain unchanged, indicating a "low - hiring, low - firing" state in the labor market. This confirms economists' expectations that the Fed will not cut interest rates before Chairman Powell's term ends in May [18].