大越期货贵金属早报-20260303

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report's industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For gold, the Middle - East situation continues to escalate, the US dollar rebounds significantly, and the gold price rises first and then falls. Although the Middle - East situation is tense, the risk - aversion sentiment cannot continuously drive up the gold price, and the rebound of the US dollar suppresses the gold price. The premium of Shanghai gold expands to 5.6 yuan/gram [4]. - For silver, due to the outbreak of the Israel - Iran conflict and the significant rebound of the US dollar, the silver price quickly drops and gives back all the previous day's gains. The risk - aversion sentiment cannot continuously drive up the silver price, but the upward trend of the silver price remains unchanged, and the premium of Shanghai silver remains at around 2,750 yuan/kg [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day Review - Gold: US stocks' three major indexes closed with mixed results, European stocks' three major indexes all closed down, US bond yields rose collectively (the 10 - year US bond yield rose 9.14 basis points to 4.036%), the US dollar index rose 0.93% to 98.55, the offshore RMB depreciated against the US dollar to 6.9012, and COMEX gold futures rose 1.68% to $5,335.90 per ounce [4]. - Silver: Similar to gold in terms of stock and bond market performance, COMEX silver futures fell 3.95% to $89.61 per ounce [5]. 3.2. Daily Tips - Gold: The basis is - 3.42 (spot at a discount to futures), the inventory of gold futures warrants is 105,060 kg and remains unchanged, the 20 - day moving average is upward and the k - line is above it, the main net long position increases [4]. - Silver: The basis is - 640 (spot at a discount to futures), the inventory of Shanghai silver futures warrants increases by 2,840 kg to 309,436 kg, the 20 - day moving average is downward and the k - line is below it, the main net long position decreases [5]. 3.3. Today's Focus - Time TBD: Speech by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda; UK Office for Budget Responsibility releases spring forecasts, and Chancellor of the Exchequer Reeves gives a budget update speech in Parliament; German Chancellor Merz will visit the US to meet with US President Trump. - 07:30: Japan's January unemployment rate. - All - day: Thailand, India, and Israel are on holiday. - 08:30: South Korea's February manufacturing PMI. - 18:00: Eurozone's February CPI flash estimate. - 22:55: New York Fed President John Williams gives a keynote speech at an event. - 23:30: ECB Governing Council member Kocher speaks. - 23:40: Dutch Central Bank President Olaf Sleijpen speaks. - Next day 00:45: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari (2026 FOMC voter) speaks [14]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The mid - term elections are approaching, with continuous turmoil and ongoing easing, and there is still support at the macro - level. The regulatory pressure still exists, and the weakness of US technology stocks makes it difficult to restore the sentiment of the silver price [9][12]. - Silver: Positive factors include global turmoil, tense US - Iran relations, the possibility of a new Fed chairman being determined with an increasing expectation of easing, the significant decline of the US dollar, the resurgence of Trump's tariff issue, the support from the photovoltaic and technology sectors, and low spot inventory with a hot supply - shortage game. Negative factors include the diminishing marginal impact of Trump's "escape" strategy, large internal differences within the Fed with a possible suspension of interest - rate cuts, the deterioration of risk preference, and the optimistic expectation of Russia - Ukraine peace talks [12][13]. 3.5. Position Data - Gold: The long positions of the top 20 holders in Shanghai gold on March 2, 2026, are 169,468, an increase of 3,206 (1.93%) compared to March 1; the short positions are 42,059, a decrease of 931 (- 2.17%); the net long position is 127,409, an increase of 4,137 (3.36%) [37]. - Silver: The long positions of the top 20 holders in Shanghai silver on March 2, 2026, are 283,761, an increase of 7,159 (2.59%) compared to February 27; the short positions are 285,652, an increase of 7,291 (2.62%); the net short position is - 1,891, an increase of - 132 (7.50%) [40].