农产品早报-20260303

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views - For corn, short - term spot supply is limited, and prices are strongly supported. After the Spring Festival, focus on the volume of supply, especially in North China. In the long - term, pay attention to import and domestic auction policies due to the supply gap [1]. - For starch, in the short - term, prices will remain strong as inventory pressure is low and there is post - festival restocking demand. In the long - term, downstream consumption rhythm is the key factor [2]. - For sugar, internationally, India's production cut and ISO's adjustment of the global surplus expectation, along with strong crude oil, may boost the price. Domestically, the market is discussing import policies, and there is hedging pressure on the upper side of the market [4]. - For cotton, low initial inventory offsets most of the output increase. With expanding textile production, good downstream profits, consumption - promoting policies, and good export performance, demand is expected to improve. New - season planting area in Xinjiang will decline, so it is suitable for long - term long positions [8]. - For eggs, post - festival restocking drives a small price rebound. Current production is in a slight loss, and farmers are delaying chicken culling. Near - month supply pressure is less than last year, but delayed culling will suppress prices during the rainy season. It is recommended to adopt a reverse spread strategy [13]. - For apples, post - Spring Festival sales slowed down, with more packaging and shipping. Fruit farmers' sales are limited, and good - quality fruit prices are stable or firm [15]. - For pigs, weekend spot prices were first stable then weak. In the mid - term, there is supply pressure, and in the long - term, there is a potential inflection point. Pay attention to changes in farmers' selling weight, second - fattening expectations, and frozen product storage [15]. Group 3: Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - Price Data: From 2026/02/24 to 2026/03/02, the price in Changchun remained at 2200, while in Jinzhou it increased by 20. The basis decreased by 4, and the processing profit of starch in Weifang increased by 3 [1]. Sugar - Price Data: From 2026/02/24 to 2026/03/02, the price in Kunming increased by 10, the basis in Liuzhou decreased by 21, the import profit from Thailand increased by 80, from Brazil increased by 82, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 201 [4]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - Price Data: From 2026/02/24 to 2026/03/02, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 95, the import profit of Vietnam yarn increased by 484, and the 32S spinning profit increased by 99 [18]. Eggs - Price Data: From 2026/02/24 to 2026/03/02, prices in Hebei, Liaoning, Shandong, and Henan increased, the basis increased by 115, the price of white - feather broilers decreased by 0.08, yellow - feather broilers decreased by 0.15, and pigs decreased by 0.50 [13]. Apples - Price Data: From 2026/02/24 to 2026/03/02, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 8900, the national inventory decreased by 154, Shandong inventory decreased by 136, and Shaanxi inventory decreased by 167 [14][15]. Pigs - Price Data: From 2026/02/24 to 2026/03/02, prices in various regions decreased, and the basis increased by 165 [15].