大越期货甲醇早报-20260303

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The weekend military strike between the US, Israel, and Iran has led to significant short - term macro - driving factors. Iranian methanol enterprises are operating at around 30% capacity, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will cause short - term import shipments to stagnate. It is expected that March's import arrivals will fall short of expectations, which will support the spot and futures prices of methanol at ports and boost the inland market. The domestic methanol market is expected to rise in the short term, with inland transfer prices rising by 40 - 80 yuan/ton over the weekend, but there is a situation of high prices with few transactions. The price of methanol is expected to fluctuate strongly this week, with MA2605 operating in the range of 2300 - 2430 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Fundamentals: The military conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has affected the methanol market. Iranian methanol enterprises are at low - capacity operation, and the Strait of Hormuz is closed, which will impact imports. The domestic methanol market is expected to rise in the short term, but there is a "price without market" situation. The price of methanol is expected to fluctuate strongly this week, with MA2605 in the 2300 - 2430 yuan/ton range [5]. - Basis: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2355 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract is - 10, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [5]. - Inventory: As of February 26, 2026, the total social inventory of methanol at ports in East and South China was 97.53 tons, with a 3.26 - ton increase from the previous period. The total available methanol in coastal areas increased by 9.36 tons to 55.43 tons [5]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is above the average line, indicating a bullish trend [5]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing [5]. 2. Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - Bullish Factors: Some domestic methanol plants are shut down or operating at reduced capacity; Iranian methanol production is at a low level, and imports in February are expected to continue to shrink; previous inventory at production areas has been actively reduced, and current inventory is low, with some enterprises even restricting sales; some downstream users are continuing pre - festival stockpiling [6]. - Bearish Factors: Domestic methanol production is operating at a high level, and there is no shortage of supply; as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream industries such as formaldehyde are gradually shutting down for holidays, weakening demand for raw materials; the main olefin plants at ports are shut down, significantly weakening local demand; most downstream industries have completed pre - festival stockpiling, leading to a phased weakening of demand [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - Price Data: In the spot market, the price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim is 685 yuan/ton, CFR China Main Port is 263 US dollars/ton, and the import cost is 2258 yuan/ton. In the futures market, the closing price of the futures is 2210 yuan/ton, and the number of registered warrants is 8979. The basis is - 3 yuan/ton, and the import price difference is 48 yuan/ton [8]. - Domestic Methanol Spot Price: The weekly change in the spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 0.09%, in Shandong is 0.00%, in Hebei is 0.97%, in Inner Mongolia is - 0.41%, and in Fujian is - 0.23% [9]. - Production Profit of Each Methanol Process: The weekly change in the profit of coal - based methanol production is - 8 yuan/ton, that of natural - gas - based is 0 yuan/ton, and that of coke - oven - gas - based is 323 yuan/ton [22]. - Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load: The national methanol load is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous week; the load in the northwest region is 81.54%, a decrease of 3.55% from the previous week [23]. - External Methanol Price and Spread: The weekly change in CFR China is 1.54%, and that in CFR Southeast Asia is 0.31%. The spread between CFR China and CFR Southeast Asia is - 59.5 US dollars/ton [26]. - Methanol Import Spread: The weekly change in the spot price of methanol is 0.09%, the import cost is 1.24%, and the import spread is - 26 yuan/ton [30]. - Price of Traditional Methanol Downstream Products: The prices of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid are all unchanged, with a weekly change of 0.00% [33]. - Production Profit and Load of Traditional Downstream Products: The profit of formaldehyde production is - 113 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 9 yuan/ton; the load is 30.98%, a slight increase of 0.01%. The profit of dimethyl ether production is 604 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 28 yuan/ton; the load is 9.79%, an increase of 1.45%. The profit of acetic acid production is 436 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 1 yuan/ton; the load is 72.32%, a decrease of 1.29%. The profit of MTO production is - 1062 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 6 yuan/ton; the load is 84.18%, a decrease of 2.27% [38][41][46][51]. - Methanol Port Inventory: The inventory at East China ports is 58.19 tons, a 2.16 - ton increase from the previous week; the inventory at South China ports is 39.34 tons, a 1.10 - ton increase from the previous week [53]. - Methanol Warehouse Receipt and Effective Forecast: The number of warehouse receipts is 8979, a 10.16% decrease from the previous week; the number of effective forecasts is 0, with no change [59]. - Methanol Balance Sheet: From 2022 to 2024, data on methanol production, demand, net imports, inventory, and supply - demand differences in each month are provided [61]. 4. Maintenance Status - Domestic Methanol Plant Maintenance: Multiple domestic methanol plants in different regions such as the Northwest, East, Southwest, and Northeast are under maintenance, with different start and end times and maintenance losses [62]. - Foreign Methanol Plant Operation: Some Iranian methanol plants are in the process of restarting or operating at low capacity, while plants in Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and other countries are operating normally, but some are undergoing maintenance [63]. - Olefin Plant Operation: Some olefin plants in the Northwest, East, Central, Shandong, and Northeast regions are operating normally, while some are under maintenance or have low - load operations [64].