有色早报-20260303

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Maintain a mid - term bullish view on copper, and it can still be bought and held in the mid - term as it has increasing demand and limited supply [1] - Aluminum prices may spike in the short term due to potential production cuts in the Middle East, and attention should be paid to the post - holiday destocking amplitude [1] - Zinc prices are expected to be supported in the short term despite general domestic fundamentals, considering limited long - term capital investment and supply disruptions from Iran [2] - Nickel prices are expected to oscillate within a range under the influence of bearish fundamentals and bullish supply - side policy interventions [4] - Stainless steel prices are expected to follow nickel prices and oscillate within a range under the influence of bearish fundamentals and bullish supply - side policy interventions [8] - Lead prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation under the drag of overseas inventories and the support of recycling profits [11] - Tin prices are still regarded as strong, but large fluctuations may occur during rapid position increases, and attention should be paid to potential callback risks [14] - Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate with costs in the short term and at the cycle bottom in the long term [18] - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are expected to be strong in the short term, and there is a large space for inter - month positive arbitrage if the intermediate inventory is further reduced to a low level [20] 3. Summary by Metal Types Copper - Price and Inventory Changes: From February 24 to March 2, the spot premium of Shanghai copper changed by 60, the waste - refined copper spread decreased by 451, and the LME inventory increased by 3975 [1] - Market Situation: Copper prices oscillated in the first half of the week and rose slightly with increased positions in the second half. The downstream point - pricing was weak due to the post - Spring Festival slow resumption of work. The continuous LME warehousing in North America and concerns about China's consumption ability affected the market. Geopolitical conflicts may increase market attention to copper [1] Aluminum - Price and Inventory Changes: From February 24 to March 2, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 210, and the LME inventory decreased by 2000 [1] - Market Situation: The intensification of the Middle East situation may lead to production cuts in the Middle East's electrolytic aluminum, giving a certain risk premium. The accumulation of domestic aluminum ingots and aluminum products is in line with seasonality but at a higher absolute level, and attention should be paid to the post - holiday destocking amplitude [1] Zinc - Price and Inventory Changes: From February 24 to March 2, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 80, and the LME inventory decreased by 575 [2] - Market Situation: On the supply side, the zinc ore supply is expected to be tight in the medium term, and the smelting industry has good profits. On the demand side, the downstream resumption of production is slow, and inventory has accumulated during the holiday. Zinc prices are expected to be supported in the short term [2] Nickel - Price and Inventory Changes: From February 24 to March 2, the price of 1.5 - grade Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [3] - Market Situation: On the supply side, the output of pure nickel increased in January. On the demand side, it is generally weak. The domestic inventory has been accumulating, and the LME inventory has increased slightly. Nickel prices are expected to oscillate within a range [4] Stainless Steel - Price and Inventory Changes: From February 24 to March 2, the price of 304 hot - rolled coil increased by 50, and the price of scrap stainless steel increased by 150. The inventory has accumulated seasonally, and the warehouse receipts have decreased slightly [8] - Market Situation: On the supply side, the steel mill production has decreased slightly. On the demand side, it is in the off - season. The cost has increased slightly. Stainless steel prices are expected to follow nickel prices and oscillate within a range [8] Lead - Price and Inventory Changes: From February 24 to March 2, the spot premium decreased by 10, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [10] - Market Situation: On the supply side, the primary lead production is resuming, and the recycling lead production is expected to resume in mid - March. On the demand side, the battery production rate has recovered, but the demand scheduling is weak. Lead prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation [11] Tin - Price and Inventory Changes: From February 24 to March 2, the spot import profit increased by 32834.14, and the LME inventory decreased by 80 [14] - Market Situation: Tin prices rose significantly this week. On the supply side, the output in Wa State is recovering, but there are supply - side risks. On the demand side, the domestic inventory has accumulated, and the overseas LME inventory has oscillated. Tin prices are still regarded as strong, but there are callback risks [14] Industrial Silicon - Price and Inventory Changes: From February 24 to March 2, the 421 - grade Yunnan basis increased by 70, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 31 [18] - Market Situation: Southwest production enterprises are mostly in a shutdown state. The overall destocking amplitude is expected to narrow. The supply and demand are close to balance, and prices are expected to oscillate with costs. In the long term, prices are expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [18] Lithium Carbonate - Price and Inventory Changes: From February 24 to March 2, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 500, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 265 [20] - Market Situation: Last week, the lithium carbonate futures market was strong. On the raw material side, supply disturbances increased, and miners were reluctant to sell. On the lithium salt side, downstream purchases were limited. In the short term, the supply and demand are both strong, and the fundamentals are strong. There is a large space for inter - month positive arbitrage [20]