广发期货《黑色》日报-20260303

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][4][7][8] 2. Core Views Steel Industry - The black metal shows a weak trend. The May contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coil closed at 3067 and 3219 yuan per ton respectively. The Iran-US war affects the passage of the Hormuz Strait, leading to an expected decline in steel export volume and suppressing the performance of the futures market. The upcoming Two Sessions may interfere with the demand-side expectations. Iron ore production is rising, the output of five major steel products is stable at a low level, and inventory is seasonally accumulating, but the inventory pressure is controllable. Raw material supply is relatively loose, and raw material prices are weak, dragging down steel prices. Although the steel valuation is not high, the supply-demand outlook is not strong. Pay attention to the impact of variables on supply-demand expectations. Rebar and hot-rolled coil should focus on the support levels around 3020 yuan/ton and 3200 yuan/ton respectively [1] Iron Ore Industry - The main iron ore contract oscillated. The Iran-US conflict has caused a sharp rise in crude oil prices, a climb in global shipping freight, and local shipping disruptions. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume increased slightly this period, and the cumulative global iron ore shipment has increased by nearly 30 million tons since the beginning of the year. The arrival volume has been declining, and the cumulative year-on-year increase in 47 ports is about 27 million tons, so supply pressure still exists. On the demand side, iron ore production has rebounded, but production resumption during the Two Sessions may be affected, and the recovery of terminal demand needs to be verified. The inventory level of finished products is acceptable, and attention should be paid to the subsequent de-stocking slope after the peak. In terms of inventory, steel mills mainly consumed raw ore inventory during the holiday, resulting in a significant decline in steel mill inventory and a slight increase in port inventory. If the daily average iron ore production in March is 2.35 million tons, there will still be a slight inventory accumulation pressure, but the accumulation speed will narrow compared to the previous period. In the short term, supply pressure still suppresses ore prices, but the inventory contradiction of finished products is not prominent, and there is also resistance to further decline in ore prices. Wait for the verification of terminal demand and policy expectations before the Two Sessions. In addition, pay attention to the changes in non-mainstream shipments. Short-term ore prices may fluctuate widely, and short positions are still considered after rebounds [4] Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Coke: The coke futures oscillated and rebounded. The steel mills accepted the first round of coke price increase before the holiday and are planning to lower the price after the holiday, while the port price remained stable. On the supply side, coke price adjustment lags behind coking coal, and the coking profit has recovered to near the break-even point after the price increase. After the holiday, coke production enterprises' operation increased slightly following the increase in iron ore production. On the demand side, the iron ore production of steel mills increased from a low level after the holiday, steel prices oscillated weakly, and the restocking demand was weak. In terms of inventory, both ports and steel mills reduced inventory, while coke production enterprises increased inventory, and the overall inventory decreased slightly from the middle level. The short-term supply and demand of coke are basically balanced. In terms of strategy, the short-term coke price is stable. With the approaching of the Two Sessions, there are certain policy expectations. The Iran-US conflict has driven up energy commodities, leading to a rebound in coking coal and coke futures, which is slightly positive for the black metal market but has limited impact. With multiple factors at play, it is recommended to view the market as oscillating, with a reference range of 1550 - 1750 [7] - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures oscillated. In the spot market, the auction prices of Shanxi coking coal decreased, and Mongolian coal prices fluctuated with the futures. After the holiday, the restocking demand weakened, and downstream enterprises mainly consumed inventory. However, the thermal coal market continued to rise, and different coal types showed different trends. On the supply side, after the Spring Festival holiday, coal mines gradually resumed production, and the daily output will gradually increase in the future. In terms of imported coal, the port inventory continued to accumulate, and customs clearance resumed on the 23rd, with 1300 vehicles cleared on that day. On the demand side, the iron ore production of steel mills increased from a low level, the coking profit was repaired, and the operation was stable with a slight increase. After the Spring Festival, the downstream restocking demand was limited. In terms of inventory, coal mines accumulated inventory, while coke production enterprises, steel mills, coal washing plants, ports, and border ports all reduced inventory, and the overall inventory decreased seasonally. In terms of strategy, the shortage of Indonesian coal has caused the domestic thermal coal price to rise, and the market expects that it will support the coking coal price. The Iran-US conflict has driven up global energy prices, and the futures market rebounded. With multiple factors at play, it is recommended to view the market as oscillating, with a reference range of 1000 - 1150 [7] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon main contract rose slightly. Overseas factors are volatile, and policy expectations before the Two Sessions are strengthening. Attention should be paid to whether ferrosilicon exports will be affected. Fundamentally, after the holiday, ferrosilicon supply increased slightly, and the absolute value is at a relatively low level in the same period of history. Most production areas' output was basically the same as last week. There are expectations of production resumption in Ningxia and maintenance in Shaanxi, and the supply is expected to continue to increase. In terms of steelmaking demand, iron ore production continued to rise and accelerated. There may be production restrictions during the Two Sessions, and terminal demand needs time to recover. The low inventory of finished products gives steel mills greater flexibility in resuming production, and the overall demand is expected to improve marginally after the holiday. In terms of non-steel demand, there are positive factors for magnesium alloys, and some ferrous alloy stocks have reached the daily limit. Currently, the daily output of metallic magnesium is at a relatively high level, and it decreased slightly due to factory maintenance during the holiday. Factories are currently producing according to orders, and downstream demand is waiting to recover. In terms of cost, the price of semi-coke decreased slightly. Currently, Ningxia has the best production profit, while other production areas have varying degrees of losses. Looking forward, the short-term supply and demand of ferrosilicon are tight. The current futures price has rebounded to near the export cost and will face pressure. With frequent overseas macro changes and strengthening policy expectations before the Two Sessions, price fluctuations are expected to intensify. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [8] - Ferromanganese: The ferromanganese main contract continued to rise in a "V" shape. Affected by spot news, it weakened during the session and then strengthened again. The Iran-US geopolitical situation has led to an increase in crude oil prices, and the shipping freight of manganese ore from South Africa, Gabon, and Brazil to China has increased by 3 - 4 US dollars per ton. Fundamentally, the supply of ferromanganese increased slightly month-on-month, and the absolute value of weekly output is at a relatively low level in the same period of history. The output in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia increased slightly, and the output in Guangxi increased month-on-month due to the electricity price discount during the holiday, but it is necessary to pay attention to whether the policy will continue after the holiday. In terms of steelmaking demand, iron ore production continued to rise and accelerated. There may be production restrictions during the Two Sessions, and terminal demand needs time to recover. The low inventory of finished products gives steel mills greater flexibility in resuming production, and the overall demand is expected to improve marginally after the holiday. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory pressure is concentrated in Ningxia, but the warehouse receipt level is relatively low, and the total inventory is neutral. In terms of cost, the price of manganese ore is firm, and the new round of foreign quotes has been raised. There is an expectation of downstream restocking, and the supply-demand pattern continues to strengthen. Last week, the manganese ore port inventory increased significantly due to the decline in port clearance during the holiday and the increase in arrivals. Attention should be paid to the subsequent de-stocking situation. In general, the short-term price driver of ferromanganese comes from manganese ore. The current futures price is at a premium to the spot price, and the supply and demand situation restricts the price increase space. Pay attention to the production resumption situation of ferromanganese. With frequent overseas macro changes and strengthening policy expectations before the Two Sessions, price fluctuations are expected to intensify. It is recommended to wait and see on a single side, pay attention to the immediate cost pressure level in Guizhou, or consider a 5 - 9 positive spread [8] 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry - Steel Prices and Spreads: Rebar and hot-rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts showed different changes. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while the price of the 10 - contract increased by 5 yuan/ton [1] - Cost and Profit: The steel billet price remained unchanged at 2910 yuan/ton, and the slab price was 3730 yuan/ton. The cost of Jiangsu electric furnace rebar increased by 2 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China hot-rolled coil increased by 10 yuan/ton [1] - Output: The daily average iron ore production increased by 2.8 to 233.3 tons, a 1.2% increase. The output of five major steel products decreased by 8.0 to 796.8 tons, a 1.0% decrease. The rebar output decreased by 5.3 to 165.1 tons, a 3.1% decrease [1] - Inventory: The inventory of five major steel products increased by 134.3 to 1846.1 tons, a 7.8% increase. The rebar inventory increased by 84.6 to 800.6 tons, an 11.8% increase. The hot-rolled coil inventory increased by 18.3 to 452.2 tons, a 4.2% increase [1] - Trading and Demand: The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.6 to 2.2 tons, a 20.6% decrease. The apparent demand of five major steel products increased by 29.0 to 564.7 tons, a 5.4% increase. The apparent demand of rebar decreased by 7.6 to 33.6 tons, an 18.5% decrease. The apparent demand of hot-rolled coil increased by 21.6 to 268.4 tons, an 8.8% increase [1] Iron Ore Industry - Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads: The warehouse receipt costs of different iron ore powders showed different changes. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of low - grade powder increased by 6.5 to 854.4 yuan/ton, a 0.8% increase. The 05 - contract basis of different iron ore powders also changed, with the basis of PB powder decreasing by 2.9 to 51.7 yuan/ton, a 5.3% decrease [4] - Spot Prices and Price Indices: The spot prices of iron ore in Rizhao Port increased to varying degrees. For example, the price of Karara powder increased by 6.0 to 886.0 yuan/ton, a 0.7% increase [4] - Supply: The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 5.5 to 2146.9 tons, a 0.3% decrease. The global shipment volume increased, and the national monthly import volume increased by 19.8 to 3340.7 tons, a 0.6% increase [4] - Demand: The daily average iron ore production of 247 steel mills increased by 2.8 to 233.3 tons, a 1.2% increase. The 45 - port daily average port clearance volume decreased by 52.7 to 298.5 tons, a 15.0% decrease. The national pig iron monthly output decreased by 162.4 to 6072.2 tons, a 2.6% decrease. The national crude steel monthly output decreased by 169.4 to 6817.7 tons, a 2.4% decrease [4] - Inventory Changes: The 45 - port inventory increased by 145.6 to 17091.96 tons, a 0.9% increase. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 1618.8 to 9085.1 tons, a 15.1% decrease. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 7.0 to 23.0 days, a 23.3% decrease [4] Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Coke - Related Prices and Spreads: The prices of different types of coke and their contracts showed different changes. For example, the price of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged at 1681 yuan/ton, and the price of the 05 - contract of coke increased by 17 to 1652 yuan/ton, a 1.0% increase [7] - Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads: The prices of different types of coking coal and their contracts also changed. For example, the price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal remained unchanged at 1190 yuan/ton, and the price of the 05 - contract of coking coal increased by 1 to 1094 yuan/ton, a 0.0% increase [7] - Supply: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.6 to 64.3 tons, a 0.9% increase. The daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 to 47.1 tons, a 0.3% decrease. The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 144.1 to 840.4 tons, a 17.1% decrease. The clean coal output decreased by 74.4 to 423.9 tons, a 17.5% decrease [7] - Demand: The iron ore production of 247 steel mills increased by 2.8 to 233.3 tons, a 1.2% increase. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.6 to 63.7 tons, a 0.9% increase. The daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 to 47.2 tons, a 0.3% decrease [7] - Inventory Changes: The total coke inventory decreased by 7.9 to 980.0 tons, a 0.8% decrease. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 7.5 to 107.8 tons, a 7.5% increase. The coke inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 13.5 to 675.1 tons, a 2.0% decrease. The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 3.1 to 124.1 tons, a 2.5% decrease. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 80.2 to 1079.1 tons, a 7.4% decrease. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 27.9 to 792.5 tons, a 3.4% decrease. The port inventory increased by 13.6 to 272.0 tons, a 5.2% increase [7] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - Futures and Spot: The closing prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese main contracts increased. The spot prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in different regions also increased to varying degrees. For example, the closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract increased by 38 to 5764 yuan/ton, a 0.7% increase. The spot price of 72% FeSi in Inner Mongolia increased by 50 to 5330 yuan/ton, a 0.9% increase [8] - Cost and Profit: The production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia increased by 17.2 to 6019.6 yuan/ton, a 0.3% increase. The production profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia increased by 32.8 to - 269.6 yuan/ton, a 10.8% increase. The production cost of ferromanganese in Inner Mongolia remained unchanged at 5500 yuan/ton [8] - Supply: The ferrosilicon production decreased by 0.1 to 28.3 tons, a 0.1% decrease. The ferromanganese weekly output increased by 0.4 to 19.7 tons, a 1.8% increase [8] - Demand: The ferrosilicon demand remained unchanged at 1.8 tons. The ferromanganese demand decreased by 0.1 to 11.0 tons, a 1.3% decrease. The daily average iron ore production of 247 steel mills increased by 2.8 to 233.3 tons, a 1.2% increase. The blast furnace operation rate increased by 0.1 to 80.2%, a 0.1% increase. The output of five major steel products decreased by 8.0 to 796.8 tons, a