集运早报-20260303

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The futures market is expected to be bullish, mainly due to emotional factors such as geopolitical escalation, MSC's announcements, and the lack of significant price drops in the spot market. However, the supply-demand imbalance in the European route remains unchanged, and the transmission effect of the Middle East route on the European route is weak. Therefore, it is recommended to pay attention to geopolitical risks in the short term and look for opportunities to short on rallies later [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market Data - EC2604 contract: Yesterday's closing price was 1429.2, up 16.73%, with a basis of 34.2, a trading volume of 81309, an open interest of 46243, and an open interest change of 8998 [2] - Other contracts (EC2605 - EC2612): Each contract has its own closing price, price change percentage, basis, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change [2] - Month spreads (EC2604 - 2606, EC2604 - 2605, EC2606 - 2610): There are differences in values compared to the previous day and three days ago, with corresponding daily and weekly changes [2] Spot Market Data - Ternar (European route): Updated daily, announced on 2026/3/2, the current value is 1463.40, down 7.00% from the previous period, and the previous period was down 2.10% [2] - SCFI (European route): Updated weekly, announced on 2026/2/27, the current value is 1420 USD/TEU [2] European Route Spot Situation - In early March, MSC led the price increase by announcing a 3000 - dollar increase, and most other shipping companies followed suit, with prices ranging from 3000 - 3100 dollars. In Week 10, some shipping companies maintained prices, while others had small increases, with an average of 2200 dollars, equivalent to about 1560 points on the futures market. In Week 11, MSK opened at 1850 dollars (down 100 dollars from the previous week). In late March, MSC announced price increases for the second half of March (Week 12 - 13) to 3200 dollars and for Week 12 to 4000 dollars [4] News - On 2/28, conflicts broke out between Israel, the US, and Iran, and the Houthi rebels announced the resumption of attacks on shipping in the Red Sea corridor [5] - On 3/1, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Many shipping companies notified they would avoid high - risk areas, and some began to levy a surcharge of 1000 - 1500 dollars on the Middle East route [5] - On 3/3, according to Iranian media, the US was deploying reinforcement troops. Also, US media reported that the US was preparing for a "large - scale attack" on Iran in the next 24 hours, aiming to destroy Iran's missile production facilities, drones, and naval forces, but the US missile inventory was decreasing [5]