大越期货甲醇周报-20260303

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the military strikes between the US, Israel and Iran, with the Iranian Supreme Leader and multiple officials killed and Iran launching a counter - attack, there is an obvious short - term macro drive. The overall methanol enterprise operation rate in Iran is currently around 30%, and the Strait of Hormuz has been closed, causing short - term import shipments to stagnate. It is expected that the imported methanol arriving in March will fall short of expectations, which will support the spot and futures prices of port methanol and also drive up the inland market. It is predicted that the domestic methanol market will rise in the short term, with a price increase of 40 - 80 yuan/ton for inland resale during the weekend, but the market has prices but no transactions. Continuous attention should be paid to the dynamics of ports and plants in the Iranian region and the actual follow - up of downstream buyers [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Review - The military conflict between the US, Israel and Iran has a significant impact on the methanol market. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the low operation rate of Iranian methanol plants will lead to an expected shortfall in imports in March, supporting the rise in methanol prices in the domestic market [5]. 3.2 Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Domestic Methanol Spot Price - The prices of methanol in different domestic regions showed different trends from February 13th to February 28th. For example, the price in Jiangsu increased by 0.09%, that in Hebei increased by 0.97%, while that in Inner Mongolia decreased by 0.41% [6]. 3.2.2 Methanol Basis - From February 13th to February 28th, the spot price of methanol in Jiangsu increased by 0.09%, the futures price increased by 1.01%, and the basis changed from 17 yuan/ton on February 13th to - 3 yuan/ton on February 28th, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton [8]. 3.2.3 Methanol Production Profits by Process - Coal - based methanol profit decreased by 8 yuan/ton, natural - gas - based methanol profit remained unchanged, and coke - oven - gas - based methanol profit increased by 323 yuan/ton from February 13th to February 28th [11]. 3.2.4 Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load - The national methanol load decreased by 3.81% from last week to 74.90%, and the load in the northwest region decreased by 3.55% to 81.54% [13]. 3.2.5 Outer - Market Methanol Price and Spread - From February 13th to February 28th, the CFR China price increased by 1.54%, the CFR Southeast Asia price increased by 0.31%, and the spread between them changed from - 62.5 dollars/ton to - 59.5 dollars/ton [16]. 3.2.6 Methanol Import Spread - From February 13th to February 28th, the domestic methanol spot price increased by 0.09%, the import cost increased by 1.24%, and the import spread decreased by 26 yuan/ton [19]. 3.2.7 Methanol Traditional Downstream Product Prices - The prices of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged from February 13th to February 28th [26]. 3.2.8 Methanol Traditional Downstream Production Profits and Loads - Formaldehyde production profit decreased by 9 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 0.01%; dimethyl ether production profit decreased by 28 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 1.45%; acetic acid production profit decreased by 1 yuan/ton, and the load decreased by 1.29% [27][29][34]. 3.2.9 MTO Production Profit and Load - MTO production profit decreased by 6 yuan/ton, and the load in East China increased by 2.16%, while that in South China increased by 1.10% [38][39]. 3.2.10 Methanol Port Inventory - The inventory in East China ports increased by 2.16, and that in South China ports increased by 1.10 [39]. 3.2.11 Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts - From February 13th to February 27th, the number of methanol warehouse receipts decreased by 10.16%, and the number of effective forecasts remained unchanged [43]. 3.3 Maintenance Status - Many domestic and foreign methanol plants are under maintenance or have production issues. For example, in the domestic market, Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao and other plants are under maintenance; in the international market, some Iranian and other plants are in the process of restarting or have low - operation - rate situations [45][46]. 3.4 Views and Strategies - It is expected that the domestic methanol market will rise in the short term. Attention should be paid to the impact of the military conflict on ports and plants in the Iranian region and the actual follow - up of downstream buyers [5].