Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The steel market shows a weak trend. The conflict between the US and Iran affects the passage of the Hormuz Strait, reducing the expected steel export volume and suppressing the market performance. The upcoming Two Sessions may also interfere with the demand - side expectations. Although the steel valuation is not high, the supply - demand outlook is not strong. Attention should be paid to the support levels of 3,020 yuan/ton for rebar and 3,200 yuan/ton for hot - rolled coils [1]. Summary by Directory - Steel Prices and Spreads: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts show various changes. For example, rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3,190 yuan/ton, 3,120 yuan/ton, and 3,240 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of - 10 yuan/ton, - 10 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton [1]. - Cost and Profit: The cost of steel billets remains unchanged at 2,910 yuan/ton, while the cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar increases by 2 yuan/ton to 3,233 yuan/ton. The profit of East China hot - rolled coils increases by 10 yuan/ton to 33 yuan/ton [1]. - Output: The daily average pig iron output increases by 2.8 to 233.3 (1.2% increase). The output of five major steel products decreases by 8.0 to 796.8 (- 1.0% decrease), and the rebar output decreases by 5.3 to 165.1 (- 3.1% decrease) [1]. - Inventory: The inventory of five major steel products increases by 134.3 to 1,846.1 (7.8% increase). The rebar inventory increases by 84.6 to 800.6 (11.8% increase), and the hot - rolled coil inventory increases by 18.3 to 452.2 (4.2% increase) [1]. - Trading and Demand: The building materials trading volume decreases by 0.6 to 2.2 (- 20.6% decrease), and the apparent demand for five major steel products increases by 29.0 to 564.7 (5.4% increase). The apparent rebar demand decreases by 7.6 to 33.6 (- 18.5% decrease), and the apparent hot - rolled coil demand increases by 21.6 to 268.4 (8.8% increase) [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The iron ore market is under pressure in the short term, but there is also resistance to further price decline. The conflict between the US and Iran affects shipping and freight costs. The supply pressure persists, and the demand recovery needs to be verified. The inventory situation shows that the port inventory increases slightly, and the steel mill inventory decreases significantly. Short - term ore prices may fluctuate widely, and it is advisable to consider short - selling after a rebound [4]. Summary by Directory - Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads: The warehouse - receipt cost of various iron ore powders shows different changes. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of lower - grade powder increases by 6.5 to 854.4 (0.8% increase). The 05 - contract basis of different iron ore powders also changes, with the 05 - contract basis of PB powder decreasing by 2.9 to 51.7 (- 5.3% decrease) [4]. - Supply: The 45 - port arrival volume in the week decreases by 5.5 to 2,146.9 (- 0.3% decrease), and the national monthly import volume increases by 19.8 to 3,340.7 (0.6% increase) [4]. - Demand: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills in the week increases by 2.8 to 233.3 (1.2% increase), and the 45 - port daily average ore - removal volume in the week decreases by 52.7 to 298.5 (- 15.0% decrease) [4]. - Inventory Changes: The 45 - port inventory increases by 145.6 to 17,091.96 (0.9% increase), and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills in the week decreases by 1,618.8 to 9,085.1 (- 15.1% decrease) [4]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Coke: The coke futures rebounded slightly. The supply - side profit is restored to near the break - even point, and the production increases slightly. The demand - side replenishment demand is weak. The overall inventory is slightly decreased, and the supply - demand is basically balanced in the short term. It is advisable to view the market as oscillatory, with a reference range of 1,550 - 1,750 yuan/ton [7]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures showed an oscillatory trend. The spot auction prices in Shanxi decreased. The supply - side production will gradually increase after the Spring Festival, and the import coal inventory accumulates. The demand - side production increases slightly, and the replenishment demand is limited after the Spring Festival. The overall inventory decreases seasonally. It is advisable to view the market as oscillatory, with a reference range of 1,000 - 1,150 yuan/ton [7]. Summary by Directory Coke - Coke - related Prices and Spreads: The prices of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) remain unchanged. The coke 05 - contract price increases by 17 to 1,652 (1.0% increase) [7]. - Supply: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increases by 0.6 to 64.3 (0.9% increase), and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreases by 0.1 to 47.1 (- 0.3% decrease) [7]. - Demand: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills increases by 2.8 to 233.3 (1.2% increase) [7]. - Inventory Changes: The total coke inventory decreases by 7.9 to 980.0 (- 0.8% decrease), the inventory of all - sample coking plants increases by 7.5 to 107.8 (7.5% increase), and the inventory of 247 steel mills decreases by 13.5 to 675.1 (- 2.0% decrease) [7]. - Supply - Demand Gap Changes: The coke supply - demand gap decreases by 0.9 to - 1.6 (- 59.4% decrease) [7]. Coking Coal - Coking Coal - related Prices and Spreads: The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse - receipt) remains unchanged, and the price of Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse - receipt) increases by 4 to 1,152 (0.3% increase). The coking coal 05 - contract price remains unchanged, and the 09 - contract price decreases by 6 to 1,189 (0.5% decrease) [7]. - Supply: The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreases by 144.1 to 840.4 (- 17.1% decrease), and the clean coal output decreases by 74.4 to 423.9 (- 17.54% decrease) [7]. - Demand: The demand for coking coal is mainly reflected in the coke production. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increases by 0.6 to 63.7 (0.9% increase), and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreases by 0.1 to 47.2 (- 0.34% decrease) [7]. - Inventory Changes: The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreases by 3.1 to 124.1 (- 2.5% decrease), the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreases by 80.2 to 1,079.1 (- 7.4% decrease), and the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreases by 27.9 to 792.5 (- 3.4% decrease) [7]. Group 4: Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures rose slightly. The supply increases slightly after the Spring Festival, and the demand is expected to improve marginally. The inventory pressure is concentrated in Ningxia, and the total inventory is moderately low. The cost of blue charcoal decreases slightly, and the production profit in Ningxia is the best. The short - term supply - demand is tight, and the price may face pressure near the export cost. It is advisable to wait and see due to frequent overseas macro - changes and the approaching Two Sessions [8]. - Ferromanganese: The ferromanganese futures continued to rise in a "V" - shaped trend. The supply increases slightly, and the production volume is at a relatively low level in the same period of history. The demand is expected to improve marginally, and the inventory accumulates significantly last week. The cost of manganese ore is firm, and the supply - demand situation restricts the price increase space. It is advisable to wait and see, and pay attention to the cost pressure in Guizhou and the 5 - 9 spread [8]. Summary by Directory Ferrosilicon - Futures and Spot: The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract increases by 38 to 5,764. The spot - prices in different regions increase to varying degrees, such as the 72%FeSi spot price in Inner Mongolia increasing by 50 to 5,330 [8]. - Cost and Profit: The production cost in Inner Mongolia increases by 17.2 to 6,019.6 (0.3% increase), and the production profit in Inner Mongolia increases by 32.8 to - 269.6 (- 10.8% increase) [8]. - Supply: The weekly ferrosilicon production is 98 (unchanged), and the operating rate of ferrosilicon production enterprises decreases by 0.1% to 28.3 [8]. - Demand: The weekly ferrosilicon demand (calculated by Mysteel) is 18 (unchanged), and the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increases by 2.8 to 233.3 (1.2% increase) [8]. - Inventory Changes: The inventory of 60 sample enterprises increases by 0.4 to 7.2 (0.94% increase), and the average available days of ferrosilicon inventory is 18.7 days [8]. Ferromanganese - Futures and Spot: The closing price of the ferromanganese main contract increases by 56 to 6,026. The spot - prices in different regions increase to varying degrees, such as the FeMn65Si17 spot price in Inner Mongolia increasing by 50 to 5,750 [8]. - Cost and Profit: The production cost in Inner Mongolia remains unchanged at 5,500. The manganese ore supply shows that the weekly manganese ore shipping volume decreases by 22.8 to 77.8 (- 22.7% decrease) [8]. - Supply: The weekly ferromanganese production increases by 0.4 to 19.7 (1.8% increase) [8]. - Demand: The weekly ferromanganese demand (calculated by Mysteel) decreases by 0.1 to 11.0 (- 1.3% decrease) [8]. - Inventory Changes: The inventory of 63 sample enterprises increases by 0.3 to 39.8 (0.94% increase), and the average available days of ferromanganese inventory is 2.0 days [8].
《黑色》日报-20260303
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2026-03-03 05:57