瑞达期货股指期货全景日报-20260303

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Overseas geopolitical conflicts may push up oil prices, causing market concerns about re - inflation, potentially leading to the Fed's failure to cut interest rates this year, suppressing the RMB exchange rate and limiting the PBOC's room for RRR and interest rate cuts. However, strong consumer spending during the Spring Festival shows the effectiveness of domestic demand - expansion policies, and the accelerated movement of household deposits provides liquidity support for the stock market. The market's concerns about external risks may put short - term pressure on A - shares, but long - term trends depend on oil price increases and the recovery of the domestic economic fundamentals [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - Futures Contract Prices: All major and minor contracts of IF, IC, IH, and IM showed declines. For example, the IF main contract (2603) dropped from the previous value by 60.6 to 4651.4 [2]. - Futures Spreads: Most of the contract spreads decreased, such as the IF - IH monthly contract spread, which dropped by 33.0 to 1632.4 [2]. - Futures Positions: The net positions of the top 20 in IF, IH, IC, and IM all decreased. For instance, the IF top 20 net position decreased by 1726.0 to 32,461.00 [2]. - Spot - Futures Basis: The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts all increased. For example, the IF main contract basis increased by 13.0 to - 4.5 [2]. 3.2 Market Sentiment Indicators - Transaction Volume and Balance: A - share trading volume reached 31,575.58 billion yuan, up 1117.93 billion yuan; the margin trading balance was 26,740.07 billion yuan, up 48.09 billion yuan [2]. - Investor Sentiment Indicators: The proportion of rising stocks dropped by 9.11% to 11.72%; the Shibor dropped by 0.048% to 1.267% [2]. 3.3 Industry News - Domestic Stock Market: A - share major indices closed significantly lower. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.43%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 3.07%, and the ChiNext Index fell 2.57%. Over 4800 stocks declined, with the defense and military industry sector weakening and the petroleum and petrochemical sector strengthening [2]. - Overseas Situation: Geopolitical conflicts between the US and Iran over the weekend led to concerns about crude oil supply disruptions. The Strait of Hormuz was closed, and the yield of US 10 - year Treasury futures exceeded 4%, indicating a significant increase in market expectations of re - inflation [2]. - Domestic Economic Fundamentals: During the Spring Festival in 2026, domestic tourism and spending increased compared to 2025, and the average daily number of travelers was also higher [2]. 3.4 Key Events to Watch - Domestic: The 4th Session of the 14th National People's Congress will be held from March 5; the National Committee of the 14th Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference will be held from March 4 - 11. China's February official manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and composite PMI will be released on March 4 at 9:30 [2][3]. - Overseas: The US February ADP employment data will be released on March 4 at 21:15; the US February non - farm payrolls, unemployment rate, and labor participation rate will be released on March 6 at 21:30 [3].