瑞达期货焦煤焦炭产业日报-20260303

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The coking coal supply is abundant, with high Mongolian coal customs clearance and slow resumption of production in coal washing plants. Downstream coke enterprises'开工 has slightly increased, coking coal inventory has decreased, and coke has continued to accumulate. The spot price of Tangshan Mongolian No. 5 coking coal is reported at 1,390 yuan/ton, equivalent to 1,305 yuan/ton on the futures market. Technically, the intraday coking coal main contract closed up 4.01% to 1,127, below the 20 - and 60 - day moving averages. Geopolitical risks and the Two Sessions' expectations boost the futures market, but the fundamentals are loose and there is an expectation of coke price cuts, so the futures price is expected to fluctuate widely [2]. - On the supply side, the load of coke enterprises has increased, and the in - plant inventory has continued to accumulate due to logistics. On the demand side, the steel mill's开工 and hot metal production have continued to rise. Technically, the intraday coke main contract closed up 3.42% to 1,694, between the 20 - and 60 - day moving averages. Currently, the coke supply - demand is loose, the market sentiment is weak, and there is an expectation of price cuts. As the Two Sessions approach, the steel mill's开工 may be restricted and the growth rate of hot metal may slow down, while geopolitical risks and macro - sentiment provide phased support, so the futures price is expected to fluctuate widely [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - JM main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 1,127.00, up 33.00 [2]. - J main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 1,694.00, up 42.00 [2]. - JM futures contract open interest (daily, lots): 685,531.00, down 32,910.00 [2]. - J futures contract open interest (daily, lots): 43,458.00, down 1,114.00 [2]. - Net open interest of the top 20 coking coal contracts (daily, lots): - 86,455.00, up 10,462.00 [2]. - Net open interest of the top 20 coke contracts (daily, lots): - 314.00, down 700.00 [2]. - JM September - May contract spread (daily, yuan/ton): 95.00, down 5.50 [2]. - J September - May contract spread (daily, yuan/ton): 76.00, down 3.00 [2]. - Coking coal warehouse receipts (daily, sheets): 0.00 [2]. - Coke warehouse receipts (daily, sheets): 0.00, up 7.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Dry Qimengduo Mongolian No. 5 raw coal (daily, yuan/ton): 1,013.00 [2]. - Tangshan Grade 1 metallurgical coke (daily, yuan/ton): 1,720.00 [2]. - Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR, US dollars/wet ton): 162.50 [2]. - Rizhao Port quasi - Grade 1 metallurgical coke (daily, yuan/ton): 1,520.00 [2]. - Jingtang Port Australian imported prime coking coal (yard price, daily, yuan/ton): 1,570.00 [2]. - Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced prime coking coal (yard price, daily, yuan/ton): 1,700.00 [2]. - Shanxi Jinzhong Lingshi medium - sulfur prime coking coal (daily, yuan/ton): 1,379.00 [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai - produced coking coal ex - factory price: 1,280.00 [2]. - JM main contract basis (daily, yuan/ton): 178.00, down 33.00 [2]. - J main contract basis (daily, yuan/ton): 26.00, down 42.00 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Fine coal output of 314 independent coal washing plants (daily, 10,000 tons): 16.90, down 7.40 [2]. - Fine coal inventory of 314 independent coal washing plants (weekly, 10,000 tons): 298.90, down 10.10 [2]. - Capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants (weekly, %): 0.23, down 0.10 [2]. - Raw coal output (monthly, 10,000 tons): 43,703.50, up 1,024.20 [2]. - Coal and lignite imports (monthly, 10,000 tons): 5,860.00, up 1,455.00 [2]. - Daily average raw coal output of 523 coking coal mines: 151.60, up 43.00 [2]. - Imported coking coal inventory at 16 ports (weekly, 10,000 tons): 494.44, down 1.83 [2]. - Total coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coke enterprises (weekly, 10,000 tons): 829.46, down 64.03 [2]. - Coke inventory at 18 ports (weekly, 10,000 tons): 261.70, down 2.16 [2]. - Coke inventory of all - sample independent coke enterprises (weekly, 10,000 tons): 62.19, up 6.67 [2]. - Coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills nationwide (weekly, 10,000 tons): 792.46, down 27.89 [2]. - Coke inventory of 247 sample steel mills (weekly, 10,000 tons): 675.11, down 13.50 [2]. - Available days of coking coal for all - sample independent coke enterprises (weekly, days): 12.65, down 0.41 [2]. - Available days of coke for 247 sample steel mills (weekly, days): 12.41, down 0.05 [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Coking coal imports (monthly, 10,000 tons): 1,376.98, up 303.83 [2]. - Coke and semi - coke exports (monthly, 10,000 tons): 100.00, up 28.00 [2]. - Total coking coal supply (monthly, 10,000 tons): 5,478.50, up 238.93 [2]. - Capacity utilization rate of independent coke enterprises (weekly, %): 72.83, up 0.97 [2]. - Profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants (weekly, yuan/ton): - 7.00, up 1.00 [2]. - Coke output (monthly, 10,000 tons): 4,274.30, up 104.00 [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide (weekly, %): 80.22, up 0.09 [2]. - Blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly, %): 87.45, up 1.04 [2]. - Crude steel output (monthly, 10,000 tons): 6,817.74, down 169.36 [2]. - According to Mysteel, the escalation of the Gulf situation has a limited direct impact and a significant indirect impact on China's steel exports. The short - term monthly export impact is about 116.24 tons. If the situation stagnates for more than three months, there is a risk of losing the Middle East market share [2]. - According to Mysteel, the construction industry has tight funds after the Spring Festival, and the resumption of work is progressing steadily. The overall capital situation of the industry is neutral to tight, with 11.54% of enterprises facing poor fund arrival; most enterprises are advancing the resumption of work as planned, and 9.62% of enterprises said the resumption progress is slow [2]. 3.6 Industry News - According to CNN, a US senior official revealed on March 2 that the US is preparing for a "substantial increase" in attacks on Iran in the next 24 hours. The US believes that the first - round attacks have achieved the goal of weakening Iran's defense capabilities, and the next stage will focus on destroying Iran's missile production capacity, drones, and naval forces [2].