合成橡胶产业日报-20260303

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Recently, the downstream operating rate has decreased, the supply of domestic butadiene has increased while demand has decreased, but the net import is expected to decline, and the port inventory is fluctuating at a high level. The processing profit of the butadiene rubber industry has improved, and the continuous increase in the operation of raw material butadiene has led to an increase in butadiene rubber production. During the Spring Festival holiday, factors such as logistics and downstream holidays have jointly affected the increase in the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber production enterprises and trading enterprises. On the demand side, the operating rate of domestic tire enterprises has significantly rebounded month - on - month. After the festival, many tire enterprises have gradually resumed work, and production scheduling has gradually increased, boosting the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises to rise significantly month - on - month. The short - term capacity utilization rate is still in the stage of gradual recovery, which will drive the capacity utilization rate to continue to increase. Although the rigid demand consumption gradually recovers after the downstream gradually resumes work, the short - term domestic butadiene rubber supply is expected to have no significant reduction. Coupled with sufficient spot circulation resources and high inventory, the inventory pressure is expected to ease slowly. Affected by the rebound in crude oil prices due to the Middle East situation, the br2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,000 - 14,000 in the short term [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 13,530 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 65 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 35,513, with a month - on - month decrease of 3,872. The 4 - 5 spread of synthetic rubber is - 25 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 10 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber in the warehouse is 18,640 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 100 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 12,800 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 350 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 12,850 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 300 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 12,800 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 400 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 12,900 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is - 765 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of - 735 yuan/ton. Brent crude oil is 77.74 US dollars/barrel, with a month - on - month increase of 5.26 US dollars/barrel; naphtha CFR Japan is 636.63 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 4.13 US dollars/ton; Northeast Asian ethylene price is 750 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 40 US dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1275 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5 US dollars/ton; WTI crude oil is 71.23 US dollars/barrel, with a month - on - month increase of 4.21 US dollars/barrel; the market price of butadiene in Shandong market is 10,700 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 425 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene is 159,300 tons, with no month - on - month change; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 76.25%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.96 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 38,400 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1,800 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 51.69%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.63 percentage points. The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 149,900 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 6,300 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber is 81.74%, with a month - on - month increase of 2.11 percentage points. The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber is - 459 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 309 yuan/ton. The weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber is 53,500 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 19,600 tons; the weekly manufacturer inventory of butadiene rubber is 45,150 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 17,350 tons; the weekly trader inventory of butadiene rubber is 8,320 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2,210 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.71 million pieces, with a month - on - month decrease of 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 59.68 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 1.29 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 47.04 days, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.82 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 44.09 days, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.34 days. As of February 26, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 30.77%, with a month - on - month increase of 18.57 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 49.25 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 26.04%, with a month - on - month increase of 13.67 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 42.11 percentage points [2] 3.5 Industry News - In February 2026, the domestic heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a decrease of nearly 30% compared with January 2025 and about 8% compared with 81,400 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales of the domestic heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The reason for the year - on - year and month - on - month decline in the heavy - truck industry in February 2026 is mainly the seasonal fluctuations in the Spring Festival month. As of February 25, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory is 53,500 tons, a significant increase of 19,600 tons compared with before the Spring Festival, a month - on - month increase of 57.68% [2]