瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20260303

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestic urea production has increased slightly recently. With no planned shutdowns of enterprise equipment this week and 1 - 2 shutdowns possibly resuming, considering short - term restarts, urea is entering its peak demand season, and short - term agricultural demand is expected to improve. [2] - Due to the relatively high temperature in most agricultural areas during the Spring Festival, it is conducive to the application of "green - turning fertilizer" for wheat. The restocking pace of downstream urea may be faster than in previous years. [2] - The production of high - nitrogen fertilizers in compound fertilizer plants is gradually starting, and the industrial consumption of urea has increased significantly. The compound fertilizer operating rate is expected to continue to rise. [2] - Urea enterprise inventories have increased significantly during the Spring Festival due to reduced logistics. With the recovery of logistics and the improvement of downstream industrial operations, urea demand will increase, and factory shipments may accelerate, with inventories possibly decreasing to some extent. [2] - Although agricultural demand is released after the festival and industrial demand is warming up, the price increase may be limited due to high supply. Attention should be paid to the intensity of demand release. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1800 - 1850 in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1819 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 2 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread is 14 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 11 yuan/ton. [2] - The position of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 266,075 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 3,294 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 44,501 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 3,814 lots. [2] - The exchange warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou urea are 0. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui are 1870, 1860, 1890, 1890, and 1870 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week increases of 20, 30, 30, 30, and 30 yuan/ton. [2] - The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 73 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 60 yuan/ton. [2] - FOB prices in the Baltic Sea and China's main ports are 408 and 481 US dollars/ton respectively, with no week - on - week change. [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - Port inventories are 17.4 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.8 million tons; enterprise inventories are 117.6 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 34.13 million tons. [2] - The operating rate of urea enterprises is 93.16%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.57 percentage points; the daily urea output is 219,400 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 6,100 tons. [2] - Urea exports are 28 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 32 million tons; the monthly output of urea is 6,289,610 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 271,170 tons. [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of compound fertilizers is 33.41%, with a week - on - week increase of 8.91 percentage points; the operating rate of melamine is 55.91%, with a week - on - week decrease of 8.26 percentage points. [2] - The weekly profit of compound fertilizers in China is 209 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea is - 261 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 121 yuan/ton. [2] - The monthly output of compound fertilizers is 5.1799 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.1845 million tons; the weekly output of melamine is 29,100 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2,500 tons. [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of February 25, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 117.60 million tons, an increase of 34.13 million tons from the previous period (February 11), a week - on - week increase of 40.89%. [2] - As of February 26, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 17.4 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.8 million tons, a rise of 4.82%. [2] - As of February 26, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1.5355 million tons, an increase of 0.0195 million tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 1.29%; the capacity utilization rate was 93.16%, a week - on - week increase of 1.18%. [2] 3.6 Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday. [2]