瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20260303

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views Corn - In the international market, due to the record - high corn production in the US in 2025, low prices and sufficient supply will suppress farmers' willingness to expand planting area in 2026. The expected planting area in 2026 is 94 million acres, lower than 98.8 million acres in 2025. However, with normal weather, the USDA expects the 2026 US corn production to reach 15.755 billion bushels, which still restricts international corn prices. In the domestic market, in the Northeast production area, the remaining grain of grass - roots farmers is less than 30%, the pressure of wet grain supply is reduced, and the grain - holding entities are bullish on the future market, resulting in a cold supply of corn. Processing enterprises have a demand for replenishing inventory, and the purchase price is generally strong. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, affected by rain and snow, the grass - roots purchase and sales recovery is slow, the supply of high - quality corn is tight, and deep - processing enterprises raise prices to promote purchases. After the Spring Festival, the corn futures price has been rising and maintaining a strong trend [2]. Corn Starch - After the Spring Festival, the operating rate of the corn starch industry has gradually increased, but the overall increase is limited, and the supply pressure is not large. However, the market purchase and sales have not recovered, the downstream procurement and delivery progress is slow, and the inventory is still rising. As of February 25, the total inventory of corn starch enterprises is 119800 tons, with a weekly increase of 7.16%, a monthly increase of 16.54%, and a year - on - year decrease of 11.32%. Affected by the strong performance of corn, the starch market has also shown a strong shock after the Spring Festival [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2373 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2678 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan. The corn monthly spread (5 - 9) is - 11 yuan/ton, and the corn starch monthly spread (3 - 5) is - 70 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan. The futures trading volume of yellow corn (active contract) is 1455854 lots, down 46207 lots; that of corn starch is 245492 lots, up 1096 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of corn is - 203351 lots, down 11880 lots; that of corn starch is - 25175 lots, up 5933 lots. The registered warehouse receipt volume of yellow corn is 90399 lots, unchanged; that of corn starch is 12500 lots, up 23 lots. The CS - C spread of the main contract is 309 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2]. External Market - The CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 445.25 cents/bushel, down 3 cents. The total CBOT corn position is 1656135 contracts, down 123787 contracts. The non - commercial net long position of CBOT corn is 8828 contracts, up 16663 contracts [2]. Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2398.04 yuan/ton, up 3.14 yuan; the ex - factory price of corn starch in Changchun is 2670 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; in Weifang is 2850 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; in Shijiazhuang is 2830 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The CIF price of imported corn is 1997.31 yuan/ton, up 15.92 yuan; the international freight of imported corn is 52 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the corn main contract is 25.04 yuan/ton, up 14.14 yuan; the basis of the corn starch main contract is - 8 yuan, up 46 yuan. The price difference between Shandong starch and corn is 450 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan; the price difference between cassava starch and corn starch is 631 yuan/ton, up 58 yuan; the price difference between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 137 yuan, up 15 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted annual corn production in the US is 432.34 million tons, up 6.81 million tons; in Brazil is 131 million tons; in Argentina is 53 million tons; in China is 301.24 million tons, up 6.24 million tons; in Ukraine is 29 million tons. The predicted sown area of corn in the US is 36.93 million hectares, up 0.49 million hectares; in Brazil is 22.6 million hectares; in Argentina is 7.5 million hectares; in China is 44.96 million hectares, up 0.66 million hectares [2]. Industry Situation - The corn inventory in southern ports is 776000 tons, up 258000 tons; in northern ports is 2210000 tons, up 3000 tons. The deep - processing corn inventory is 3852000 tons, down 723000 tons. The monthly import volume of corn is 800000 tons, up 240000 tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 16740 tons, down 200 tons. The monthly output of feed is 3008600 tons, up 30700 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The deep - processing corn consumption is 1124900 tons, down 10400 tons. The operating rate of alcohol enterprises is 54.46%, down 0.35 percentage points; the operating rate of starch enterprises is 45.68%, up 4.33 percentage points. The processing profit of corn starch in Shandong is - 38 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Hebei is 29 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Jilin is - 98 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 7.75%, up 0.59 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.27%, up 0.24 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 10.87%, down 0.68 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for corn is 10.88%, down 0.68 percentage points [2]. Industry News - In the week ending February 26, 2026, the US corn export inspection volume was 1858624 tons, compared with 2020239 tons last week and 1352573 tons in the same period last year. As of February 26, the harvesting progress of the first - season corn in the central and southern regions of Brazil in the 2025/26 season reached 36%, higher than 28% of the previous week but lower than 46% of the same period last year. The USDA said that due to the record - high corn production in the US in 2025, low prices and sufficient supply will suppress farmers' willingness to expand corn planting area in 2026 [2].