大越期货白糖早报-20260304

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The ISO predicts a global sugar market surplus of 122 million tons in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, down from the previous estimate of 163 million tons. Covrig Analytics expects the global sugar surplus in the 26/27 season to shrink to 140 million tons, lower than the 470 million tons in the 25/26 season. Green Pool anticipates a 15.6 - million - ton surplus in the 26/27 season, less than the 274 - million - ton surplus in the 25/26 season [5]. - As of the end of January 2026, in the 25/26 season, the cumulative sugar production in China was 6.89 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 2.9 million tons, and the sales rate was 42.09%. In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 69,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 120,800 tons [5]. - The basis of Liuzhou spot sugar is 59 (for the 05 contract), with a premium over futures, showing a neutral situation. The industrial inventory as of the end of January in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season was 3.99 million tons, also neutral. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish trend. The main position is bearish, with the net short position decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, tending to be bearish [5]. - After the Spring Festival, Zhengzhou sugar futures fluctuated upward, with the K - line standing above the long - term moving average. Technically, it shows a trend of emerging from the right - hand side of the market. Downstream enterprises began to replenish stocks after the festival, market demand started to recover, the crude oil price rose, and the price of sugar - made ethanol increased, indirectly supporting the sugar price. The center of sugar price has shifted upward, and a short - term bullish and volatile view is recommended [5][8]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - No relevant content found 2. Daily Tips - Bullish factors include a possible decline in Brazil's sugar production in the 26/27 season, an increase in syrup tariffs, and the change of the US cola formula to use sucrose. Bearish factors are the increase in global sugar production, a surplus in the new season's global supply, the fall of the foreign sugar price to around 14.5 cents per pound, the opening of the import profit window, and increased import impact [6]. 3. Today's Focus - No relevant content found 4. Fundamental Data - Multiple institutions predict a supply surplus in the 25/26 and 26/27 sugar - crushing seasons. For example, the ISO predicts a 122 - million - ton surplus in the 25/26 season, and Green Pool predicts a 15.6 - million - ton surplus in the 26/27 season [5]. - In China, the sugar - cane and beet planting and harvesting areas, yields per hectare, and sugar production, import, consumption, and export data from 2023/24 to 2025/26 are presented. For instance, in 2025/26, the estimated sugar production is 11.7 million tons, import is 5 million tons, consumption is 15.7 million tons, and export is 180,000 tons [33]. - The cost and profit of imported raw sugar after processing with a 50% tariff from December 2025 to January 2026 are provided. For example, on December 9, 2025, the cost was 5,132 yuan per ton, and the profit was 618 yuan per ton [37]. 5. Position Data - No relevant content found