大越期货焦煤焦炭早报-20260304

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For Coking Coal: Although the overall start - up of coking enterprises has recovered, they still face the pressure of inventory accumulation and falling coke prices, and maintain a cautious attitude towards coking coal procurement. With an important meeting approaching and downstream production restrictions, the release of coking coal demand is limited. It is expected that the coking coal price will run weakly and stably in the short term [3]. - For Coke: Affected by the off - season market and profit, steel mills' enthusiasm for coke procurement has declined, mainly on a demand - based basis, leading to inventory accumulation in some coking enterprises. After the festival, supply has recovered faster than demand, the contradiction between supply and demand of coke has become prominent, and the cost - side support for coke has gradually weakened. The market expectation of price reduction has further increased. It is expected that coke will run weakly and stably in the short term [8]. Summary by Directory Coking Coal - Fundamentals: Coal mines in production areas are gradually resuming production, and coking coal supply is increasing. However, coking and steel enterprises maintain a low - inventory strategy, mainly purchasing coking coal as needed. After the festival, the market trading atmosphere is somewhat cold, and the trading sentiment is also cautious. The online auction market performs averagely, and the non - sale rate of some coal types has increased, with the transaction price continuing to decline from the pre - festival high [4]. - Basis: The spot market price is 1180, and the basis is 53, with the spot at a premium to the futures [4]. - Inventory: Steel mill inventory is 820,000 tons, port inventory is 2.58 million tons, and independent coking enterprise inventory is 8.93 million tons. The total sample inventory is 19.71 million tons, a decrease of 2.43 million tons compared with last week [3]. - Market: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [4]. - Main Force Position: The main force of coking coal is net long, and the long position increases [4]. - Positive Factors: Iron and steel production increases, and supply is difficult to increase [6]. - Negative Factors: Coking and steel enterprises slow down the procurement of raw coal, and steel prices are weak [6]. Coke - Fundamentals: Recently, the prices of some raw coal types have fluctuated downward, the cost of coking coal for coking enterprises has decreased, and profits have been repaired. The overall start - up level is okay, but affected by the decline in downstream procurement enthusiasm, coking enterprises face certain inventory - reduction pressure. At the same time, as the price of the coking coal auction market has declined, the support of the raw material end for the coke spot price has weakened [8]. - Basis: The spot market price is 1620, and the basis is - 74, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - Inventory: Steel mill inventory is 689,000 tons, port inventory is 199,000 tons, and independent coking enterprise inventory is 56,000 tons. The total sample inventory is 944,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons compared with last week [8]. - Market: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [8]. - Main Force Position: The main force of coke is net long, and the long position decreases [8]. - Positive Factors: Iron and steel production increases, and the blast furnace start - up rate rises simultaneously [10]. - Negative Factors: The profit space of steel mills is squeezed, and the restocking demand has been partially overdrawn [10]. Inventory Details - Port Inventory: Coking coal port inventory is 2.58 million tons, unchanged from last week; coke port inventory is 199,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons compared with last week [22]. - Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory: Independent coking enterprise coking coal inventory is 8.93 million tons, a decrease of 2.25 million tons compared with last week; coke inventory is 56,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons compared with last week [26]. - Steel Mill Inventory: Steel mill coking coal inventory is 820,000 tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons compared with last week; coke inventory is 689,000 tons, a decrease of 9,000 tons compared with last week [31].