大越期货油脂早报-20260304

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the oil and fat market is that prices are in a state of shock consolidation, with a relatively neutral domestic fundamental situation and stable domestic oil and fat supply. The Sino - US relationship is tense, which puts pressure on the price of US soybeans. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026 [2][3][4] - The expected price ranges for different oils are: soybean oil Y2605 between 8200 - 8600, palm oil P2605 between 8900 - 9300, and rapeseed oil OI2605 between 9400 - 9800 [2][3][4] Summary by Directory Supply - Soybean oil inventory: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1020000 tons, a decrease of 60000 tons from the previous period and an increase of 14.7% year - on - year [2] - Soybean meal inventory: Not detailed in the report - Oil mill soybean crushing: Not detailed in the report - Palm oil inventory: On January 9th, the port inventory of palm oil was 736000 tons, an increase of 2200 tons from the previous value and an increase of 46% year - on - year [3] - Rapeseed oil inventory: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250000 tons, a decrease of 20000 tons from the previous value and a decrease of 44% year - on - year [4] - Rapeseed inventory: Not detailed in the report - Total domestic oil and fat inventory: Not detailed in the report Demand - Soybean oil apparent consumption: Not detailed in the report - Soybean meal apparent consumption: Not detailed in the report Recent利多利空Analysis - Likely: The US soybean stock - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. The palm oil tremor season [5] - Negative: Oil and fat prices are at a relatively high historical level, and domestic oil and fat inventories are continuously accumulating. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected output of related oils and fats is high [5] - Main logic: The global oil and fat fundamental situation is relatively loose [5]