大越期货聚烯烃早报-20260304

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: March 4, 2026 - Author: Zhu Tianyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [2][3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The macroeconomic situation shows that the official manufacturing PMI in February was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The escalation of the Iran situation in the Middle East has led to a jump - up in the price of external crude oil, providing significant short - term support for polyolefin valuations. Both LLDPE and PP are expected to show a wide - range volatile and upward trend today [4][7] Summary by Category LLDPE - Fundamentals: The macro situation is positive, and the Iran situation provides cost support. Downstream demand in the agricultural film sector is recovering slowly, while the packaging film has low - load rigid demand and is expected to recover rapidly around the Lantern Festival. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price is 7050 (+330), with an overall positive fundamental situation [4] - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is - 150, and the premium/discount ratio is - 2.1%, which is negative [4] - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 627,000 tons (+259,000), which is negative [4] - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is positive [4] - Main Position: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is negative [4] - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is strong, with cost support from the Iran situation, neutral inventory, and gradually recovering downstream demand. It is expected to show a wide - range volatile and upward trend today [4] - Leverage and Risks: Positive factors include cost support and the Iran situation driving up crude oil prices. Negative factors are oversupply and sensitive marginal changes in supply and demand. Main risk points are significant crude oil fluctuations and international policy games [6] PP - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, the macro situation is positive, and the Iran situation provides cost support. The rigid demand for plastic weaving is stable, the demand in the north is recovering quickly but with limited growth, and the BOPP industry has a fast resumption of work but faces some finished - product inventory pressure. The current PP delivery product spot price is 7100 (+350), with an overall positive fundamental situation [7] - Basis: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is - 123, and the premium/discount ratio is - 1.7%, which is negative [7] - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 740,000 tons (+349,000), which is negative [7] - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is positive [7] - Main Position: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, which is negative [7] - Expectation: The PP main contract is strong, with cost support from the Iran situation, neutral inventory, and gradually recovering downstream demand. It is expected to show a wide - range volatile and upward trend today [7] - Leverage and Risks: Positive factors include cost support and the Iran situation driving up crude oil prices. Negative factors are oversupply and sensitive marginal changes in supply and demand. Main risk points are significant crude oil fluctuations and international policy games [8] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend. The import dependence decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 31.1% in 2023 and then increased slightly to 32.9% in 2024. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 43.195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [14] - Polypropylene: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also showed an upward trend. The import dependence decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 8.4% in 2023 and then increased slightly to 9.5% in 2024. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 49.06 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [16]