大越期货棉花早报-20260304

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zhengzhou Cotton shows short - term concentrated bullish factors, and the market needs adjustment. In terms of fundamentals, the traditional peak seasons of "Golden March and Silver April" are approaching, US tariffs are lowered, and Sino - US relations are easing, which is beneficial for textile exports. Cotton will fluctuate and adjust, with the main 05 contract oscillating in the range of 15,000 - 15,500 [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review No information provided in the report. 3.2 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: In 2026, the planting area of Xinjiang cotton is under regulation, with an expected reduction of over 10%. According to the USDA February report, the output in the 2025/2026 season is 26.096 million tons, consumption is 25.847 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.353 million tons. In December, textile and clothing exports were $25.99 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 7.4%. In December, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 31%; and imported 170,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 13.33%. According to the Ministry of Agriculture's February forecast for the 2025/2026 season, the output is 6.64 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.29 million tons. The overall situation is bullish [4]. - Basis: The national average price of spot 3128b is 16,591, and the basis is 1336 (for the 05 contract), with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [6]. - Inventory: The Ministry of Agriculture of China predicts an ending inventory of 8.29 million tons for the 2025/2026 season in February, which is bearish [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [6]. - Main Position: The position is bullish, the net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, but still considered bullish [6]. - Bullish Factors: In 2026, the planting area of Xinjiang cotton is under regulation, with an expected reduction of over 10%. Downstream replenished stocks before the Spring Festival. Tariffs on exports to the US have been reduced. Sino - US relations are easing. The traditional peak seasons of "Golden March and Silver April" are coming [7]. - Bearish Factors: Overall foreign trade orders are decreasing, and inventory is increasing. A large amount of new cotton is on the market. Currently, it is the traditional off - season for consumption [8]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided in the report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast: In February, the total global cotton output in the 2025/2026 season is 26.096 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1% or 286,000 tons; consumption is 25.847 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0% or 49,000 tons; the ending inventory is 16.353 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2% or 295,000 tons [11]. - ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast (November 2025): In the 2025/2026 season, the area is 30.41385 million hectares, the yield per unit area is 835.13 kg/ha, the output is 25.39956 million tons, the beginning inventory is 15.83577 million tons, imports are 9.71442 million tons, consumption is 25.00778 million tons, exports are 9.71412 million tons, the ending inventory is 16.22785 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 0.65 [14]. - Ministry of Agriculture Data: In the 2025/2026 season, the beginning inventory is 7.88 million tons, the sown area is 2.979 million hectares, the harvested area is 2.979 million hectares, the yield per unit area is 2229 kg/ha, the output is 6.64 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.29 million tons. The average domestic cotton 3128B price is in the range of 14,000 - 16,000 yuan/ton, and the Cotlook A index is in the range of 75 - 100 cents/pound [16]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided in the report.