建信期货原油日报-20260304

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term geopolitical situation will make oil prices rise strongly. SC is more supported than the external market, and its volatility will increase. There is still great uncertainty in the US - Iran situation, and attention should be paid to the later navigation time of the strait [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: WTI's opening price was $75, closing price was $71.03, with a high of $75.33, a low of $69.2, a decline of 5.98%, and a trading volume of 842,400 lots. Brent's opening price was $81.57, closing price was $78.07, with a high of $82.37, a low of $75.75, an increase of 7.14%, and a trading volume of 1,144,500 lots. SC's opening price was 545 yuan/barrel, closing price was 572.3 yuan/barrel, with a high of 572.3 yuan/barrel, a low of 544.1 yuan/barrel, an increase of 12%, and a trading volume of 208,800 lots [5] - Analysis of Supply and Demand: Iran officially announced the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, causing oil prices to rise. The maximum capacity of Saudi Arabia's east - west pipeline is 5 million barrels per day, and the UAE can transport 1.5 million barrels per day of crude oil by land through the pipeline. However, there is still a gap of more than 13 million barrels per day that is difficult to fill. According to the balance sheet, EIA and IEA expect a supply surplus of 3 million barrels per day in the global market in the first quarter of this year. If the blockade lasts for more than two weeks, the market in the first quarter will turn to a basic balance between supply and demand [5] 3.2. Industry News - Some Asian refineries are considering reducing production by 20% to 30% [9] - Due to the conflict in the Middle East, tanker freight rates have soared to record levels, and the daily income of benchmark tankers has reached $424,000 [9] - Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura refinery was attacked by Iranian drones and caught fire. As a preventive measure, it has been shut down, and the situation is under control [9] - JPMorgan Chase said that even if the passage of the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for only 3 - 4 weeks, it may force the GCC member states to shut down oil production and push the Brent crude oil price above $100 per barrel [9]