建信期货棉花日报-20260304

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: March 4, 2026 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton futures showed a volatile adjustment. For CF2605, the opening price was 15,260 yuan/ton, the closing price was 15,252 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.03%. The trading volume was 396,239 lots, and the open interest was 778,613 lots, a decrease of 15,900 lots. For CF2609, the opening price was 15,305 yuan/ton, the closing price was 15,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.03%. The trading volume was 108,742 lots, and the open interest was 203,837 lots, an increase of 143 lots. For CF2701, the opening price was 15,650 yuan/ton, the closing price was 15,640 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.10%. The trading volume was 3,324 lots, and the open interest was 10,848 lots, an increase of 788 lots [7]. - The latest cotton price index for grade 328 was 16,591 yuan/ton, a decrease of 42 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In the 2025/26 season, the machine - picked cotton of grade 31 with double 29 and impurity within 3 in southern Xinjiang's Kashgar had many quotes at CF05 + 1,100 or above, and a small amount was lower than this price. In northern Xinjiang, the higher quotes were above 1,400, and the mainstream lower quotes were between 1,200 - 1,400, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [7]. Industry Conditions - The trading in the pure cotton yarn market was weak, with unclear downstream orders. The market mainly fulfilled previous orders, inventory decreased, and manufacturers were cautious and mainly in a wait - and - see mode. The overall trading in the all - cotton grey fabric market recovered moderately, and there was no significant improvement. The price of all - cotton grey fabric increased by 0.2 - 0.3 yuan/meter compared with before the festival, but the transaction was difficult to follow up [8]. - Macroeconomically, the escalation of the Middle East situation led to a sharp rise in oil prices, causing inflation concerns and weakening the expectation of interest rate cuts. The cotton market had a strong risk - aversion sentiment and showed a volatile adjustment. Internationally, as of the week ending February 28, the cotton planting rate in Brazil for the 2025/26 season had reached 100%. Domestically, as of March 2, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of cotton nationwide was 7.4843 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.2%, among which the inspection volume in Xinjiang was 7.3835 million tons. As of mid - February, the domestic commercial cotton inventory was 5.5037 million tons, which had entered a downward trend with good consumption support, a year - on - year decrease of 177,400 tons. The downstream market had not fully started, the overall new orders in the pure cotton yarn market were insufficient, and the actual transaction amount was significantly lower than the quoted price [8]. Operational Suggestions - The short - term trend of the cotton market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, pending the performance of post - festival peak - season demand, the cotton planting intention report, and the target price policy guidance [8] Group 3: Industry News - According to Mysteel research, as of February 26, the inventory of imported cotton at major ports was 538,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.75%. Among them, the inventory at ports and surrounding warehouses in Shandong (Qingdao, Jinan) was 471,000 tons, the inventory at Zhangjiagang Port and surrounding warehouses in Jiangsu was about 37,300 tons, and the inventory at other ports was about 29,800 tons [9]. - As of February 27, 2026, the total commercial cotton inventory was 5.2676 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 87,800 tons, a decrease of 1.64%. Among them, the commercial cotton inventory in Xinjiang was 4.1005 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 112,600 tons, a decrease of 2.67% [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, CF1 - 5 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, warehouse receipt volume, US dollar to RMB exchange rate, and US dollar to Indian rupee exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [17][18][16]