建信期货集运指数日报-20260304

Report Information - Report Type: Daily Report on Container Shipping Index [1] - Date: March 4, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - The escalation of the Middle East situation has boosted market sentiment, and airlines have postponed their resumption of Red Sea routes, leading to most container shipping index futures hitting the daily limit. Despite the current off - season in transportation after the Spring Festival, limited export demand, and high运力 supply in March and April, the slowdown of the Red Sea resumption plan can relieve the运力 pressure. Although the actual impact of geopolitical conflicts on container shipping supply and demand is limited, it has a greater impact on long - term sentiment and the futures market, potentially causing the index to strengthen periodically. It is advisable to pay attention to the convergence of spot and futures prices in the second half of March near the delivery date and look for opportunities to short - allocate off - season contracts such as 04 and 06 [8]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Situation: The escalation of the Middle East situation has strengthened market sentiment, and airlines have postponed Red Sea resumption, resulting in most container shipping index futures hitting the daily limit. The post - Spring Festival period is still an off - season for transportation. Short - term tariff issues are unlikely to trigger exporters to rush shipments, and the demand for photovoltaic exports is limited. The运力 supply in March and April remains at a high level in the same period of history. However, the slowdown of the Red Sea resumption plan can continue to digest the运力 pressure. [8] - Spot Price: Leading airlines such as MSC, CMA, and HPL announced in early February that they would raise the freight rate in March to over $3000 per large container. However, the current price in early March still mainly follows the late - February price of $2000 - $2300 per large container. The off - season price increase may be more for price stabilization and difficult to implement. [8] - Operation Suggestion: Geopolitical conflicts have a limited actual impact on container shipping supply and demand but a greater impact on long - term sentiment and the futures market, potentially causing the index to strengthen periodically. Pay attention to the convergence of spot and futures prices in the second half of March near the delivery date and look for opportunities to short - allocate off - season contracts such as 04 and 06. [8] 2. Industry News - Overall Market: After the traditional "Spring Festival" holiday, the Chinese export container shipping market was generally stable. The freight rates in the ocean - going routes showed an upward trend, driving up the composite index. On February 27, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index was 1333.11 points, up 6.5% from the previous period. [9] - European Routes: The eurozone's February composite PMI rose to 51.9, with the manufacturing PMI jumping from 49.5 to 50.8, reaching a 44 - month high and crossing the boom - bust line for the first time since August last year, indicating a good economic recovery momentum and an accelerated manufacturing expansion. The transportation demand remained stable compared to before the holiday, with a solid supply - demand fundamental, and the spot market booking price increased. On February 27, the market freight rate (including shipping and shipping surcharges) from Shanghai Port to European basic ports was $1420 per TEU, up 4.3% from the previous period. [9] - Mediterranean Routes: The market situation was in sync with the European routes, and the market freight rate increased. On February 27, the market freight rate (including shipping and shipping surcharges) from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean basic ports was $2305 per TEU, up 5.9% from the previous period. [9] - North American Routes: The US February composite PMI preliminary value dropped to 52.3, with both the manufacturing and service PMI preliminary values slightly declining. Although still in the expansion range, the expansion speed showed signs of slowing down. The US Supreme Court ruled that the large - scale tariff measures implemented by the Trump administration were unconstitutional, leading to great uncertainty in global trade. The transportation market was relatively stable, and the spot market booking price continued to rise. On February 27, the market freight rates (including shipping and shipping surcharges) from Shanghai Port to the basic ports in the US West and East were $1857 per FEU and $2691 per FEU respectively, up 3.9% and 6.6% from the previous period. [10] - Persian Gulf Routes: The recent geopolitical tension in the region has continued to escalate, and the traditional "Ramadan" is approaching, driving up the spot market freight rate significantly this week. On February 27, the market freight rate (including shipping and shipping surcharges) from Shanghai Port to Persian Gulf basic ports was $1327 per TEU, up 35.4% from the previous period. [10] - Geopolitical Events: Trump stated that a nuclear - armed Iran is unacceptable to the US, and the US will continue large - scale military operations in Iran, which may last for 4 - 5 weeks, but they are prepared for a longer - term operation. He also said that if the next Iranian leader is pragmatic, he may lift the sanctions on Iran. Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani said that Iran will not negotiate with the US. The advisor to the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said that the Strait of Hormuz has been closed, and Iran will attack all ships trying to pass through the Strait. Goldman Sachs estimated that the European natural gas price may rise by 130%, and the oil price may increase by $18 per barrel, equivalent to a 6 - week blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. A JPMorgan analyst said that if the Strait of Hormuz is completely closed due to the Middle East conflict, Middle - Eastern oil - producing countries may only be able to continue production for "at most 25 days". [10] - Tariff Issues: The US Supreme Court ruled that the US government's additional tariffs on relevant trading partners under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act are illegal. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce is comprehensively evaluating the relevant content and impact and urges the US to cancel the additional unilateral tariff measures on trading partners. The US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) announced that it will stop collecting tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) from February 24, US Eastern Time. The Chairman of the European Parliament's International Trade Committee, Bernd Lange, said that the European Parliament's negotiation team decided to suspend the approval work of the EU - US trade agreement and postpone the vote on the agreement originally scheduled for February 24. Trump warned that any country trying to "play tricks" using the Supreme Court's ruling will face higher tariffs and more serious consequences. [10] 3. Data Overview - Container Shipping Spot Prices: The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index for the European route (basic ports) on March 2, 2026, was 1463.4, down 110.11 (-7.0%) from February 23. The index for the US West route (basic ports) was 1045.08, down 66.93 (-6.0%) from February 23. [12] - Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market: The report provides trading data for multiple container shipping European line futures contracts on March 3, including the previous settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, percentage change, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest. [6] - Shipping - Related Data Charts: The report includes charts of European container ship运力, global container ship orders on hand, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates. [17][19]