建信期货聚烯烃日报-20260304

1. Report Overview - The report is a daily report on the polyolefin industry dated March 4, 2026 [1][2] 2. Team Introduction - The energy and chemical research team includes researchers for polyolefins, crude oil and fuel oil, PTA and MEG, pulp, and glass and soda ash [4] 3. Futures Market Quotes | Variety | Opening Price (yuan/ton) | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Highest Price (yuan/ton) | Lowest Price (yuan/ton) | Change (yuan/ton) | Change Rate (%) | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Plastic 2701 | 7100 | 7175 | 7178 | 7019 | 269 | 3.90 | 2208 | 250 | | Plastic 2605 | 7047 | 7200 | 7200 | 6976 | 407 | 5.99 | 436928 | -68551 | | Plastic 2609 | 7096 | 7183 | 7186 | 6995 | 307 | 4.46 | 102815 | 12703 | | PP2701 | 6974 | 7070 | 7107 | 6930 | 248 | 3.64 | 4260 | 318 | | PP2605 | 7037 | 7223 | 7223 | 7021 | 408 | 5.99 | 502966 | 4353 | | PP2609 | 7067 | 7169 | 7197 | 6972 | 322 | 4.70 | 134631 | 683 | [5] 4. Market Review and Outlook - L2605 opened higher, fluctuated upward during the session, and hit the daily limit at the end, closing at 7,200 yuan/ton, up 407 yuan/ton (5.99%), with a trading volume of 1.035 million lots and an open interest decrease of 68,468 lots to 437,011 lots. PP2605 closed at 7,223 yuan/ton, up 408 yuan, a 5.99% increase, with an open interest increase of 7,385 lots to 479,800 lots [6] - The current market trading core has shifted from its own fundamentals to the cost and sentiment logic driven by geopolitics, and the weight of fundamental factors has decreased temporarily [6] - The escalating situation in the Strait of Hormuz and the high crude oil prices will support the polyolefin market from the cost side. Coupled with the expected reduction in imports of raw materials such as methanol and propane and the unexpected device maintenance, polyolefin prices are expected to gain short - term upward momentum [6] - However, the reality of high inventory and weak demand has not changed. If the geopolitical premium drives prices higher, the upside space will be significantly restricted by the industrial reality. If the geopolitical conflict eases later, the market will focus on domestic supply - demand verification, and the downstream resumption progress, peak - season performance, and inventory reduction rhythm will become the dominant factors [6] - In the short term, geopolitical and emotional support is strong, and market fluctuations are amplified. It is recommended to wait and see or adopt a range - bound trading strategy, and be vigilant against the risk of price decline after a pulse - type market [6] 5. Industry News - On March 3, 2026, the inventory level of major producers was 890,000 tons, a 10,000 - ton increase (1.14%) from the previous working day, compared with 845,000 tons in the same period last year [7] - PE market prices mostly rose. The LLDPE price in North China was 6,920 - 7,550 yuan/ton, in East China was 6,900 - 7,550 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7,400 - 7,650 yuan/ton [7] - The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily 6,620 - 6,660 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Affected by geopolitical factors, the cost of propylene was strongly supported. Coupled with the continuous rise of the futures market, market sentiment was boosted. Downstream factories were waiting to enter the market for procurement, and the demand support was relatively average. Producers' offers were stable with some increases, and some actual transactions had a small premium [7] 6. Data Overview - The report includes figures on L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year change rate, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [9][16][18]