建信期货油脂日报-20260304

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: March 4, 2026 [2] - Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core View - The oil and fat sector continued to strengthen, mainly due to the continuous military strikes by the United States and Israel against Iran, which pushed up crude oil prices. The oil and fat market is expected to follow the trend of crude oil and be bullish in the near future. Attention should be paid to the progress of the US biodiesel policy and the trend of international crude oil prices [7] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Dongguan rapeseed oil traders' quotes: Spot: OI2605 + 450, April - May: OI2605 + 280, May - July: OI2605 + 120. East China market soybean oil basis prices: March: Y2605 + 340, April - May: Y2605 + 280, May - July: Y2609 + 260, June - September: Y2609 + 250. Palm oil basis quotes were stable with a slight decline: East China port 24 - degree 05 - 60, 24 - degree refined 05 + 230 (yuan/ton) [7] - In February 2026, Malaysia's palm oil exports decreased by 21.5% - 25.5% month - on - month. Malaysia's palm oil inventory in February may have decreased for the second consecutive month, with an expected decrease of 6.52% from January to 2.63 million tons, the lowest since November last year. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) plans to release its monthly report on March 10 [7] Group 5: Industry News - According to SPPOMA data, Malaysia's palm oil production in February decreased by 19.35% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield per unit area decreasing by 19.2% month - on - month and the oil extraction rate (OER) decreasing by 0.03% month - on - month [8] - AmSpec data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports in February were 1,025,449 tons, a 25.5% decrease from January. ITS data showed that exports were 1,149,063 tons, a 21.5% decrease from January, with exports to China increasing by 17,800 tons to 58,000 tons compared to the previous month. SGS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil product exports in February 2026 were 852,629 tons, a 9.76% decrease from January, with exports to China increasing significantly from 44,000 tons to 57,000 tons [8][9] Group 6: Data Overview - USDA压榨月报: In January 2026, the US soybean crushing volume was 227.8 million bushels, a 0.9% decrease from the previous month and a 7% increase from the same period last year, slightly higher than the market expectation of 226.3 million bushels. As of the end of January 2026, the US soybean oil inventory was 2.433 billion pounds, a 11.7% increase from the previous month and a 33.9% surge from the same period last year, the highest level since April 2023 [14] - As of February 27, the soybean harvest progress in Mato Grosso state in the 2025/26 season reached 78.34% of the planted area, higher than 65.75% a week ago but lower than 82.30% in the same period last year. The predicted soybean production in the state in the 2025/26 season is 50.5 million tons, a 0.74% decrease from the record - high production of the previous year [14]