大越期货纯碱早报-20260304

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak. The start - up load of Yuangxing Energy's Phase II production line has increased, resulting in high production and an expected abundant supply. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass has declined, and the inventory of soda ash plants is at a historically high level. Although the conflict between the US and Iran has boosted sentiment, the short - term trend is expected to be mainly volatile [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily View - Fundamentals: The start - up load of Yuangxing Energy's Phase II has increased, with high production and an expected abundant supply. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass has declined, and the inventory of soda ash plants is at a historically high level, which is bearish [3]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,175 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2605 is 1,218 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 43 yuan, with the futures at a premium to the spot, which is bearish [3]. - Inventory: The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.8944 million tons, an increase of 19.29% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [3][34]. - Disk: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, which is bullish [3]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [3]. - Expectation: The conflict between the US and Iran has boosted sentiment, but the fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term [3]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - Positive Factors: There are few cold repairs of downstream float glass, and the production remains stable [4]. - Negative Factors: The start - up load of Yuangxing Energy's Phase II production line has increased, and there is no expectation of new overhauls, so the production is expected to remain high. The production of heavy - soda downstream photovoltaic glass has decreased, and the demand for soda ash has weakened. The supply of soda ash is high, the terminal demand has declined, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [6]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market | | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Heavy Soda Ash: Shahe Low - end Price (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,188 | 1,155 | - 33 | | Current Value | 1,218 | 1,175 | - 43 | | Change Rate | 2.53% | 1.73% | 30.30% | [7] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1,175 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [13]. 3.5 Soda Ash Production - Production Profit: The profit of heavy soda ash by the North China ammonia - soda process is - 162.25 yuan/ton, and the profit of the East China co - production method is - 69.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low [16]. - Start - up Rate and Production: The weekly start - up rate of the soda ash industry is 85.04%. The weekly production of soda ash is 790,900 tons, including 423,000 tons of heavy soda ash, and the production is at a historical high [19][21]. - Capacity Changes: In 2023, the total new capacity of soda ash was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new capacity was 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons [22]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - Soda Ash Sales - to - Production Ratio: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 61.12% [25]. - Downstream Demand: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 148,600 tons, and the start - up rate is 70.61% [28]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.8944 million tons, an increase of 19.29% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [34]. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, start - up rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35].