大越期货贵金属早报-20260304

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold: Trump's vow on the Iran issue and the U.S. providing insurance and naval escort for oil tankers led to a sharp decline in gold prices. The Middle - East situation continues to escalate, hitting risk appetite, but the safe - haven sentiment still supports gold, and the gold price will fluctuate. The mid - term elections are approaching, with continuous turmoil and ongoing easing, and there is still support at the macro level [4]. - Silver: Trump's statement and related news led to a sharp drop in silver prices, followed by a rebound. Risk appetite is low, and the safe - haven sentiment still exists, but the silver price is weak. The regulatory pressure remains, and the weakness of U.S. technology stocks makes it difficult for the silver price sentiment to recover [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: Trump's stance on the Iran issue, global stock market declines, a significant rise in the U.S. dollar, and a sharp fall in gold prices. The U.S. three major stock indexes and European three major stock indexes all closed down. The 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield rose 9.14 basis points to 4.036%, the U.S. dollar index rose 0.52% to 99.06, and the offshore RMB depreciated against the U.S. dollar. COMEX gold futures fell 3.99% to $5099.5 per ounce [4]. - Silver: Similar to gold, due to Trump's statement, the global stock market declined, and silver prices tumbled. COMEX silver futures fell 7.38% to $82.3 per ounce [5]. 3.2. Daily Tips - Gold: The basis is - 2.2, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of gold futures warehouse receipts is 105,060 kilograms, unchanged; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average; the main net long position increased [4]. - Silver: The basis is - 304, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1952 kilograms to 307,484 kilograms; the 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average; the main net long position decreased [5]. 3.3. Today's Focus - A series of economic data and events are to be focused on, including Japan's February service and composite PMI final values, Australia's fourth - quarter GDP, China's February official and RatingDog manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and composite PMIs, and many other data from different countries. Also, the National Committee of the 14th Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference's fourth session and the Fed's Beige Book are to be watched [14]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - Gold: Mid - term elections are approaching, with continuous turmoil and ongoing easing, providing macro - level support. There are also factors such as global turmoil, tense U.S. - Iran relations, and the possible determination of the new Fed chairman, which increase the expectation of easing [9]. - Silver: There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include global turmoil, tense U.S. - Iran relations, the possible determination of the new Fed chairman with an increased expectation of easing, the Trump tariff issue, support from the photovoltaic and technology sectors, and low spot inventory. Negative factors include the fading marginal impact of Trump's "escape" strategy, large internal differences in the Fed, the possible suspension of interest rate cuts, and the optimistic expectation of Russia - Ukraine peace talks [12][13]. 3.5. Position Data - Gold: The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai gold increased by 3,206 (1.93%), the short positions decreased by 931 (-2.17%), and the net position increased by 4,137 (3.36%) [37]. - Silver: The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai silver increased by 7,159 (2.59%), the short positions increased by 7,291 (2.62%), and the net position decreased by 132 (7.50%) [39]. - ETF: The SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased, while the silver ETF holdings increased slightly [42][44]. - Warehouse Receipts: COMEX gold warehouse receipts continued to decrease but remained at a high level, and Shanghai gold warehouse receipts increased slightly. Shanghai silver warehouse receipts decreased slightly and were at the lowest level in the past six years, and COMEX silver warehouse receipts continued to decrease [46][48].