有色套利早报-20260304

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for various non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, and lead on March 4, 2026 [1][3][4][5] Summary by Directory Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - Copper: Spot domestic price is 101,860, LME price is 13,101, and the ratio is 7.87; March domestic price is 102,340, LME price is 13,145, and the ratio is 7.80. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 7.86, with a profit of - 1476.86, and a spot export profit of - 55.12 [1] - Zinc: Spot domestic price is 24,390, LME price is 3,279, and the ratio is 7.44; March domestic price is 24,430, LME price is 3,299, and the ratio is 5.12. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.25, with a profit of - 2678.48 [1] - Aluminum: Spot domestic price is 23,950, LME price is 3,186, and the ratio is 7.51; March domestic price is 23,990, LME price is 3,182, and the ratio is 7.66. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.29, with a profit of - 2471.36 [1] - Nickel: Spot domestic price is 133,700, LME price is 17,022, and the ratio is 7.85. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.00, with a profit of - 206.52 [1] - Lead: Spot domestic price is 16,650, LME price is 1,916, and the ratio is 8.68; March domestic price is 16,855, LME price is 1,965, and the ratio is 12.51. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.51, with a profit of 314.52 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - Copper: The spreads between the next - month, March, April, and May contracts and the spot - month contract are - 1400, - 1160, - 1110, and - 880 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 620, 1137, 1664, and 2190 [4] - Zinc: The spreads between the next - month, March, April, and May contracts and the spot - month contract are - 410, - 350, - 310, and - 315 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 227, 360, 493, and 626 [4] - Aluminum: The spreads between the next - month, March, April, and May contracts and the spot - month contract are - 465, - 380, - 330, and - 280 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 233, 367, 501, and 634 [4] - Lead: The spreads between the next - month, March, April, and May contracts and the spot - month contract are - 5, 10, 25, and 95 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 209, 314, 420, and 525 [4] - Nickel: The spreads between the next - month, March, April, and May contracts and the spot - month contract are - 4880, - 4480, - 4330, and - 4170 [4] - Tin: The spread between the 5 - 1 contracts is - 3790, and the theoretical spread is 8148 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - Copper: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot are 1815 and 415 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 535 and 893 [4] - Zinc: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot are 390 and - 20 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 189 and 263 [4][5] - Lead: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot are 195 and 190 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 145 and 257 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (triple - continuous) are 4.19, 4.27, 6.07, 0.98, 1.42, and 0.69 respectively; for London (triple - continuous) are 3.96, 3.98, 6.69, 0.99, 1.68, and 0.59 respectively [5]