《农产品》日报-20260304

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. Core Views Oils and Fats - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are in a high - level volatile consolidation, with a chance to rise to 4,200 ringgit. Dalian palm oil futures may test the 9,000 - yuan mark. - In the soybean oil market, geopolitical conflicts boost CBOT soybean oil, but domestic demand is weak, and the basis quote is lowered. Factory soybean oil inventory is decreasing. - For rapeseed oil, geopolitical conflicts drive up oil prices, and domestic rapeseed oil follows the upward trend. There is a risk of stagnant growth after a sharp rise, and the spot market has limited transactions [1]. Cotton - ICE cotton futures continue to decline, and the 67 - cent - per - pound level may face pressure. In the domestic market, the supply side is supported by the expected reduction of cotton - planting area in Xinjiang and the decline of commercial inventory, but the slow resumption of downstream factories and large internal - external price differences restrict the upward space. In the long - term, the overall price may run stronger [2]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar prices rise but the bullish sentiment is limited. Brazilian sugar production is close to expectations, and the dry weather has brought uncertainty to the 26/27 season. Indian sugar production is expected to be reduced, and Thai sugar production may be revised down. In the domestic market, the 1 - month production and sales data slowed down, and the short - term bearish factors have been fully traded, with the market relatively resistant to decline [3]. Red Dates - The red dates market in the 25/26 production season has an oversupply pattern. The futures market is expected to fluctuate in a low - valuation range, with a small - scale rebound limited by hedging and inventory pressure [4]. Apples - The apple market is active, with a shortage of high - quality apples. The price of ordinary apples is stable. The inventory in cold storage is decreasing. The short - term price is supported by low inventory and high - quality fruit rate [6]. Corn and Corn Starch - In the corn market, the supply in the Northeast is tight, and the price is firm. In North China, the price is strong due to supply - demand imbalance. The demand side has limited enthusiasm for replenishment. The short - term price is in a high - level volatile state, and may face pressure in the future [8]. Meal - US soybeans are in a high - level volatile state. The domestic soybean meal market is affected by external factors, but the domestic supply is loose, and the basis is falling. The market is expected to maintain a high - level volatile state [9]. Pigs - After the Spring Festival, the supply of pigs is increasing, and the demand is weak. The market is under pressure, and the spot price is weak. The market is waiting for secondary fattening to support the price, but the upward space is limited [13]. Eggs - The supply of eggs is slowly decreasing, but there is inventory pressure. The market is in a off - season, and the price is expected to be in a weak - volatile state [15]. Summary by Directory Oils and Fats - Spot Prices: On March 3, the prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all increased compared to the previous day, with increases of 0.58%, 0.79%, and 0.38% respectively [1]. - Futures Prices: The futures prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil also rose, with increases of 1.09%, 1.08%, and 1.12% respectively [1]. - Basis: The basis of soybean oil and rapeseed oil decreased, while the basis of palm oil decreased significantly [1]. - Spreads: The spreads between different contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil showed different degrees of change [1]. Cotton - Futures Market: The price of cotton 2605 increased by 0.20%, while the price of cotton 2609 decreased by 0.03%. The ICE US cotton main contract decreased by 1.16% [2]. - Spot Market: The prices of various spot indexes of cotton decreased to different degrees [2]. - Industry Situation: The trade volume decreased by 100%, the industrial inventory increased by 3.8%, the import volume increased by 49.5%, and the inventory in bonded areas increased by 15% [2]. Sugar - Futures Market: The prices of sugar 2605 and sugar 2609 decreased by 0.45% and 0.39% respectively. The ICE raw sugar main contract decreased by 0.14% [3]. - Spot Market: The prices of sugar in Nanning and Kunming changed slightly, and the basis of Nanning increased by 40.00% [3]. - Industry Situation: The national sugar production and sales volume decreased year - on - year, and the industrial inventory increased [3]. Red Dates - Futures Market: The prices of red dates 2605, 2607, and 2609 all increased, with increases of 0.62%, 0.78%, and 0.66% respectively [4]. - Spot Market: The spot prices of red dates in Cangzhou remained unchanged [4]. - Inventory: The total number of futures registered warehouse receipts and effective forecasts was 4,114, a year - on - year decrease of about 29.4% [4]. Apples - Futures Market: The price of the apple 2605 main contract increased by 3.91%, and the price of the apple 2610 contract increased by 0.30% [6]. - Spot Market: The arrival volume of fruit wholesale markets increased, and the national cold - storage inventory decreased by 3.34% [6]. Corn and Corn Starch - Corn: The price of corn 2605 decreased by 0.46%, the basis increased by 350.00%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 8.33% [8]. - Corn Starch: The price of corn starch 2605 decreased by 0.59%, the basis increased by 31.31%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 6.25% [8]. Meal - Soybean Meal: The price of soybean meal in Jiangsu remained unchanged, the futures price increased by 0.35%, and the basis decreased by 3.94% [9]. - Rapeseed Meal: The price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu increased by 0.80%, the futures price increased by 0.65%, and the basis increased by 2.56% [9]. - Soybeans: The price of soybeans in Harbin remained unchanged, the futures price of the soybean - one main contract decreased by 1.30%, and the basis increased by 10.45% [9]. Pigs - Futures Market: The price of the pig 2605 main contract decreased by 0.62%, and the 3 - 5 spread increased by 6.25% [13]. - Spot Market: The spot prices of pigs in various regions decreased to different degrees [13]. - Industry Indicators: The slaughter volume increased by 2.91%, the self - breeding profit decreased by 62.38%, and the purchased - pig breeding profit decreased by 60.77% [13]. Eggs - Futures Market: The prices of the egg 04 and 05 contracts decreased by 1.39% and 1.85% respectively [15]. - Spot Market: The egg - producing area price decreased, and the egg - chick price increased by 3.12% [15]. - Industry Indicators: The egg - feed ratio decreased by 9.00%, and the breeding profit decreased by 249.92% [15].