《有色》日报-20260304

Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention any industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views Copper - Short - term: Copper prices are expected to be affected by factors such as incomplete downstream复产 after the domestic festival, continuous inventory accumulation at home and abroad, and non - expanding CL premium. In March, the electrolytic copper production is expected to remain high, with a phased mismatch between supply and demand, continuous inventory accumulation, low spot premiums, and limited price upward drive. The risk to focus on is the narrowing of the CL premium. - Medium - to long - term: The copper fundamentals are still good. There are capital expenditure constraints on the supply side, and AI is expected to bring incremental demand for power grid upgrade and transformation. The center of copper prices is expected to gradually rise. Short - term adjustments may provide opportunities for long - term long positions. The main contract is recommended to pay attention to the support around 100,000 yuan/ton [2]. Zinc - The zinc fundamentals are generally good. The shortage pattern in the mine end has improved, and the domestic zinc mine TC has bottomed out. After March, with the resumption of domestic mines, TC may have a slight rebound space. The smelting profit may be repaired, and the refined zinc output is expected to remain high. - The demand is weak due to seasonal factors, and the downstream enterprises are in the process of resuming production. The terminal procurement demand is weak, and the spot trading is still average. The inventory has room for replenishment as the peak - season demand recovers. However, if the downstream复产 in the peak season fails to meet expectations, the domestic inventory pressure may suppress the zinc price. The main contract is recommended to pay attention to the support around 23,800 yuan/ton [4]. Nickel - Recently, macro uncertainties have increased, and there have been continuous disturbances in the mine end, providing strong support for raw materials. However, weak demand and high inventory are the main constraints. The bottom support is strong, but the upward drive is limited. The nickel price is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation, with the main contract running between 134,000 - 140,000 yuan/ton [6]. Stainless Steel - Overseas macro risks are uncertain, while domestic policy expectations are strong. Steel mills are expected to reduce production, but demand boost and inventory digestion are still insufficient. The cost and demand of stainless steel are in continuous game. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate strongly, with the main contract running between 14,000 - 14,500 yuan/ton [8]. Lithium Carbonate - Geopolitical conflicts have increased market uncertainties and magnified macro risks. The lithium carbonate price is over - valued, and funds are flowing to the oil - chemical and precious - metal sectors. The new energy trading momentum is weak, and there has been a significant net outflow of funds. The price is currently driven by sentiment, and the macro risks have strengthened the risk - aversion mentality of funds. The price may be adjusted in the short term, and the main contract's operating range is lowered to 140,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton. It is not recommended to open new long positions in the short term, and the previous long positions can be protected by options [10]. Industrial Silicon - The supply and demand sides have not changed much, but attention should be paid to the impact of the expanding Middle - East geopolitical conflict on export demand. In March, both supply and demand are expected to be strong. The cost provides support for the futures price. It is recommended to hold long positions around 8,200 yuan/ton cautiously and pay attention to reducing or closing positions [11]. Polysilicon - The supply and demand sides have not changed much, but attention should be paid to the impact of the expanding Middle - East geopolitical conflict on market risk appetite and export demand. If the downstream battery and component enterprises resume production and increase production significantly, and the terminal photovoltaic installation demand is released, the polysilicon procurement demand is expected to pick up, and the inventory pressure will be relieved. The futures market is expected to stabilize and rebound. It is recommended to wait and see [13]. Tin - The long - term upward logic of tin prices still exists. The supply of tin ore has increased, and the downstream demand is expected to gradually recover, but the high price may suppress the demand recovery rhythm. Affected by the tense situation between the US and Iran, the market risk - aversion sentiment has impacted the price, and the tin price has dropped significantly. It is recommended to wait for the sentiment to stabilize before entering the market [15][16]. Aluminum - Alumina: The price is expected to continue to oscillate widely, with the main contract running between 2,700 - 2,900 yuan/ton. The key to whether the market can build a bottom lies in whether the industry profit pressure can trigger more substantial production cuts or whether there are more explicit capacity - control policies. Attention should also be paid to the changes in warehouse receipts and the operation of new capacities in Guangxi. - Aluminum: In the short term, the macro situation is the key variable, and trading should be cautious to prevent short - term price retracement due to profit - taking. In the long term, the supply increment elasticity at home and abroad is limited, the global supply - demand balance pattern remains, and the long - term upward logic of aluminum prices remains unchanged. The short - term operating range of the main Shanghai aluminum contract is expected to be 23,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday inventory inflection point and downstream resumption progress [18]. Aluminum Alloy - In the short term, the market will continue to oscillate in a range under the situation of weak supply and demand, with the main contract running between 22,000 - 24,000 yuan/ton. The key turning point in the post - holiday market lies in whether the downstream resumption rhythm and order recovery can match the supply increase speed and the improvement of scrap - aluminum circulation. If the terminal orders increase significantly and the primary aluminum is strongly driven by the macro factors, the ADC12 price still has room for further increase [19]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper - Price and Basis: The prices of SMM 1 electrolytic copper, SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper, and SMM wet - process copper have all decreased, with daily declines of - 0.51%, - 0.14%, and - 0.49% respectively. The refined - scrap price difference has increased by 5.66%. - Fundamental Data: In February, the electrolytic copper production decreased by 3.13% month - on - month, and in December, the import volume decreased by 4.02% month - on - month. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 5.40% week - on - week, the electrolytic copper rod production start - up rate increased by 6.42 percentage points, and the recycled copper rod production start - up rate decreased by 5.20 percentage points. The domestic social inventory, bonded - area inventory, and SHFE inventory have all increased, with week - on - week increases of 10.13%, 0.30%, and 43.69% respectively [2]. Zinc - Price and Basis: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 0.12%, and the price of SMM 0 zinc ingot in Guangdong increased by 0.16%. The import loss decreased by 36.38 yuan/ton. - Fundamental Data: In February, the refined zinc production decreased by 9.99% month - on - month. In December, the import volume decreased by 51.94% month - on - month, and the export volume decreased by 36.32% month - on - month. The galvanizing, die - casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide production start - up rates have all increased. The domestic zinc - ingot seven - region social inventory increased by 21.41% week - on - week, and the LME inventory decreased by 1.45% [4]. Nickel - Price and Basis: The prices of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel, 1 Duochuan nickel, and 1 imported nickel have all decreased, with daily declines of - 0.99%, - 1.10%, and - 1.01% respectively. The LME 0 - 3 spread decreased by 9.06%. The futures import profit increased by 90.07%. - Fundamental Data: In February, the Chinese refined nickel production decreased by 7.59% month - on - month, and the import volume increased by 84.63% month - on - month. The SHFE inventory and social inventory increased by 3.43% and 2.73% week - on - week respectively [6]. Stainless Steel - Price and Basis: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.34%. The price of Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (CIF) increased by 4.96%. - Fundamental Data: The production of Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel decreased by 27.89% month - on - month, and the production of Indonesian 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel increased by 0.36% month - on - month. The stainless - steel import volume increased by 29.32% month - on - month, and the export volume increased by 19.65% month - on - month. The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased by 15.95% week - on - week [8]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Basis: The prices of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate, SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate, SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide, and SMM industrial - grade lithium hydroxide have all decreased. The lithium spodumene concentrate CIF average price decreased by 5.93%. - Fundamental Data: In February, the lithium carbonate production decreased by 15.13% month - on - month, and the demand decreased by 10.57% month - on - month. In December, the import volume increased by 8.77% month - on - month, and the export volume increased by 20.11% month - on - month. The overall inventory decreased by 4.76% month - on - month [10]. Industrial Silicon - Price and Basis: The prices of East - China oxygen - permeated S15530 industrial silicon and Xinjiang 99 silicon decreased by 0.55% and 0.58% respectively. The main - contract futures price decreased by 1.44%. - Fundamental Data: The national industrial silicon production decreased by 26.58% month - on - month. The Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan production decreased by 32.24%, 24.58%, and 70.87% respectively. The national start - up rate decreased by 21.33% month - on - month. The organic silicon DMC production decreased by 15.06% month - on - month, and the polysilicon production decreased by 23.61% month - on - month. The industrial silicon export volume decreased by 100.00% month - on - month [11]. Polysilicon - Price and Basis: The main - contract futures price decreased by 2.74%. The N - type silicon - chip 210mm average price decreased by 0.72%. - Fundamental Data: The weekly polysilicon production decreased by 1.49% to 1.98 million tons, and the silicon - chip production increased by 12.94% to 11.35GW. The monthly polysilicon production decreased by 23.61% to 7.70 million tons, and the import volume and export volume both decreased by 100.00% [13]. Tin - Price and Basis: The prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze River 1 tin decreased by 4.85% and 4.84% respectively. The import loss increased by 5.13%. - Fundamental Data: In December, the tin ore import volume increased by 16.81%. In February, the SMM refined tin production decreased by 23.91%. The SHEF inventory and social inventory increased by 11.25% and 15.26% respectively [15]. Aluminum - Price and Basis: The prices of SMM A00 aluminum and Yangtze River aluminum A00 increased by 1.40% and 1.44% respectively. The electrolytic aluminum import loss increased by 337.2 yuan/ton. - Fundamental Data: In February, the alumina production decreased by 10.63% month - on - month, and the domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 8.91% month - on - month. The aluminum - profile, aluminum - cable, and aluminum - plate production start - up rates have all increased. The Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 10.92% week - on - week, and the LME inventory decreased by 0.43% [18]. Aluminum Alloy - Price and Basis: The prices of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 and other varieties increased by about 1.26%. The Jiangxi Baotai Network ADC12 - A00 price difference decreased by 13.64%. - Fundamental Data: In January, the recycled - aluminum alloy ingot production decreased by 4.69% month - on - month, and the primary - aluminum alloy ingot production decreased by 30.99% month - on - month. The recycled - aluminum alloy production start - up rate decreased by 4.06% week - on - week. The recycled - aluminum alloy ingot weekly social inventory decreased by 0.23% [19].