广发期货日报-20260304

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - Black metals are trading in a narrow range with low volatility. The short - term export outlook for steel is weak due to the Iran - US conflict affecting shipping routes to the Persian Gulf. The upcoming Two Sessions may also interfere with demand expectations. Iron - water production is rising, and the inventory pressure is controllable. Raw material supply is abundant, and weak raw material prices may drag down steel prices. The reference support levels for rebar and hot - rolled coils are around 3020 yuan/ton and 3200 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Iron Ore - The iron ore futures main contract is oscillating. The 5 - 9 positive spread has widened significantly. Supply pressure persists as global iron ore shipments have increased and port arrivals are falling. Iron - water production is rising, but the resumption of production may be affected by the Two Sessions. The terminal demand recovery needs verification. The inventory situation requires attention. Short - term ore prices may fluctuate widely in the range of 730 - 770 [4]. Coke - Coke futures are oscillating upwards. The coking profit has recovered to near the break - even point after the price increase. After the holiday, coke production has increased slightly, and steel mills' iron - water production has rebounded from a low level. The overall inventory is slightly lower. Short - term coke prices are stable, and there are policy expectations during the Two Sessions. It is recommended to be cautious, with a reference range of 1600 - 1800 [7]. Coking Coal - Coking coal futures are oscillating upwards. The spot price in Shanxi is weak, and Mongolian coal prices fluctuate with the futures. After the holiday, the demand for restocking is weak. Coal mines are resuming production, and the port inventory is high. The overall inventory is seasonally decreasing. It is recommended to view it with a slightly bullish bias and operate cautiously, with a reference range of 1000 - 1150 [7]. Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon main contract continues to rise slightly. After the holiday, supply has increased slightly but remains at a low level compared to historical periods. Iron - water production is rising, and overall post - holiday demand is expected to improve marginally. The inventory pressure is concentrated in Ningxia, and the total inventory is moderately high. Short - term supply is tight, and price fluctuations are expected to intensify. It is recommended to wait and see [8]. Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese main contract continues to rise. Manganese ore prices are strong, driving up the transaction price of silicomanganese. Supply has increased slightly, and iron - water production is rising. The overall post - holiday demand will continue to improve marginally. Manganese ore port inventory has increased significantly. The short - term price driver comes from manganese ore, and it is recommended to wait and see or consider the 5 - 9 positive spread [8]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions remained unchanged, while some futures contracts had small price changes. For example, the rebar 05 contract rose by 7 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil 01 contract fell by 14 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar increased by 5 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coils decreased by 8 yuan/ton [1]. Production - The daily average iron - water production increased by 2.8 to 233.3, a 1.2% increase. The production of five major steel products decreased by 8.0 to 796.8, a 1.0% decrease. Rebar production decreased by 5.3 to 165.1, a 3.1% decrease [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 134.3 to 1846.1, a 7.8% increase. Rebar inventory increased by 84.6 to 800.6, an 11.8% increase, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 18.3 to 452.2, a 4.2% increase [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 0.8 to 5.2, a 17.4% increase. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 29.0 to 564.7, a 5.4% increase. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 7.6 to 33.6, an 18.5% decrease, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased by 21.6 to 268.4, an 8.8% increase [1]. Iron Ore Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased slightly, with a decline of about 0.1%. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.5 to 20.5, a 2.4% decrease, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 1.5 to 13.5, a 12.5% increase [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrivals decreased by 5.5 to 2146.9, a 0.3% decrease. The global shipments increased by 19.8 to 3340.7, a 0.6% increase. The national monthly import volume increased by 910.7 to 11964.7, an 8.2% increase [4]. Demand - The 247 - steel - mill daily average iron - water production increased by 2.8 to 233.3, a 1.2% increase. The 45 - port daily average dredging volume decreased by 52.7 to 298.5, a 15.0% decrease. The national monthly pig - iron production decreased by 162.1 to 6072.2, a 2.6% decrease, and the national monthly crude - steel production decreased by 169.4 to 6817.7, a 2.4% decrease [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 145.6 to 17091.96, a 0.9% increase. The 247 - steel - mill imported ore inventory decreased by 1618.8 to 9085.1, a 15.1% decrease. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 7.0 to 23.0, a 23.3% decrease [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Coke - Coke futures prices increased. The coking profit improved. The daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.6 to 64.3, a 0.9% increase, and the 247 - steel - mill daily average production decreased by 0.1 to 47.1, a 0.3% decrease. The total coke inventory decreased by 7.9 to 980.0, a 0.8% decrease [7]. Coking Coal - Coking coal futures prices increased. The Mongolian coal price increased by 29 to 1181, a 2.5% increase. The daily average production of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased significantly. The total coking coal inventory decreased seasonally [7]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon main contract price increased. The production cost in Inner Mongolia increased by 17 to 6036.6, a 0.3% increase. The weekly production increased by 0.1 to 0.9, a 0.6% increase. The demand decreased by 0.3 to 18, a 1.8% decrease. The inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 0.1 to 7.0, a 1.6% decrease [8]. Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese main contract price increased. The manganese ore price was strong. The weekly production increased by 0.4 to 19.7, a 1.8% increase. The demand decreased by 0.1 to 11.0, a 1.3% decrease. The inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased by 0.4 to 39.8, a 0.9% increase [8].