贵金属期现日报-20260304

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For the Middle - East turmoil, if the US successfully destroys the Iranian regime, it may boost the US dollar and put pressure on precious metals after a short - term positive impact. If the US fails to achieve its goal quickly and drags the Middle - East into long - term turmoil, precious metals may have greater upside potential. This week, one should closely monitor the Middle - East situation and the impact of US non - farm data on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. Gold is seeking support at the 20 - day moving average, and it is advisable to wait and see in the short term while selling out - of - the - money call options to protect long positions [1]. - For silver, the long - term logic of rising prices driven by supply inventory shortages and strong investment demand still holds. However, short - term exchange rule adjustments reduce physical delivery demand, and cautious capital attitudes limit upward momentum. The price shows a multi - week oscillation, with the moving average converging and volatility falling. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options to earn time value [1]. - For platinum and palladium, supported by their macro - financial attributes and a tight supply outlook, with stable industrial demand and slightly increasing investment demand, prices generally have support, but they are dragged down by gold and silver and maintain a weak oscillation in the short term [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Closing Prices - AU2604 contract closed at 1182.00 yuan/gram on March 3, down 15.22 yuan or 1.27% from March 2 [1]. - AG2604 contract closed at 21645 yuan/kilogram on March 3, down 2786 yuan or 11.40% from March 2 [1]. - PT2606 contract closed at 570.30 yuan/gram on March 3, down 56.20 yuan or 8.97% from March 2 [1]. - PD2606 contract closed at 433.90 yuan/gram on March 3, down 29.75 yuan or 6.42% from March 2 [1]. Foreign Futures Closing Prices - COMEX gold main contract closed at 5099.50 on March 3, down 236.40 or 4.43% from March 2 [1]. - COMEX silver main contract closed at 82.30 on March 3, down 7.31 or 8.16% from March 2 [1]. - NYMEX platinum main contract closed at 2089.70 dollars/ounce on March 3, down 228.90 or 9.87% from March 2 [1]. - NYMEX palladium main contract closed at 1672.00 on March 3, down 129.50 or 7.19% from March 2 [1]. Spot Prices - London gold was at 5088.33, down 233.10 or 4.38% from the previous value [1]. - London silver was at 82.00, down 7.26 or 8.13% from the previous value [1]. - Spot platinum was at 2114.00 dollars/ounce, down 215.00 or 9.23% from the previous value [1]. - Spot palladium was at 1645.50, down 122.75 or 6.94% from the previous value [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D was at 1181.56 yuan/gram, down 17.95 or 1.50% from the previous value [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver T + D was at 21427 yuan/kilogram, down 2525 or 10.54% from the previous value [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum 9995 was at 571 yuan/gram, down 35 or 5.85% from the previous value [1]. Basis - Gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract was - 0.44, down 2.73 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 46.10% [1]. - Silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract was - 218, up 261 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 60.60% [1]. - London gold - COMEX gold was - 18.14, up 2.12 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 44.20% [1]. - London silver - COMEX silver was - 0.63, up 0.06 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 6.60% [1]. Bid Prices - COMEX gold/silver was 61.96, up 2.42 or 4.06% from the previous day [1]. - Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver was 54.61, up 5.60 or 11.44% from the previous day [1]. - NYMEX gold/silver was 1.25, down 0.04 or - 2.89% from the previous day [1]. - Guangzhou Futures Exchange gold/silver was 1.31, down 0.04 or - 2.73% from the previous day [1]. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.06, up 0.01 or 0.2% from the previous day [1]. - 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.51, up 0.04 or 1.2% from the previous day [1]. - 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 1.77, up 0.01 or 0.6% from the previous day [1]. - US dollar index was 99.06, up 0.51 or 0.52% from the previous day [1]. - Offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.9175, up 0.0164 or 0.24% from the previous day [1]. Inventory and Positions - Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory was 105060, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver inventory was 307484 kilograms, down 1952 or - 0.63% from the previous value [1]. - COMEX gold inventory was 33071598, down 99538 or - 0.30% from the previous value [1]. - COMEX silver inventory was 355173837, down 2391537 or - 0.67% from the previous value [1]. - COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts were 17021190, down 13903 or - 0.08% from the previous value [1]. - COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts were 87985493, down 790368 or - 0.89% from the previous value [1]. - SPDR gold ETF position was 1089, down 2.29 or - 0.21% from the previous value [1]. - SLV silver ETF position was 15981, up 79.15 or 0.50% from the previous value [1].