黑色产业链日报-20260304

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - For steel products, short - term policy expectations support the market, but weak fundamentals limit the upside. Wait for policy implementation after the Two Sessions and inventory depletion speed [3] - For iron ore, non - mainstream ore shipments remain high, suppressing price upside. The Iran situation provides short - term support, but the supply - demand pattern is still loose. Iron water production may first decline and then rise due to the Two Sessions' production restrictions, and low - price restocking by steel mills provides a bottom support [22] - For coal and coke, from March to April, it is the terminal demand verification period. If there is a combination of "exceeding - expected domestic mine resumption" and "weakening macro sentiment", coal and coke prices may face significant downward pressure [33] - For ferroalloys, short - term silicon manganese prices are supported by manganese ore news, but high inventories may lead to hedging. Silicon iron has good fundamentals and cost support, but its upside is limited by weak downstream fundamentals [50] - For soda ash, there are rumors of a major factory's overhaul. Supply may be affected, and inventory is better than expected. The upside of the price is limited by demand elasticity, and the downside requires inventory accumulation. The long - term supply is expected to be high [69] - For glass, actual demand has not returned, and the market is in the recovery period. High intermediate inventory and supply return expectations limit the price upside, and demand needs to be verified [93] 3. Summary by Directory Steel - Prices: On March 4, 2026, the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts changed slightly compared to the previous day. For example, the rebar 01 contract closed at 3131 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan from March 3 [4] - Spreads: The month - to - month spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil also changed. For instance, the rebar 01 - 05 month spread was 60 yuan/ton on March 4, up 2 yuan from March 3 [4] - Spot and Basis: The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions were reported. The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil also changed. For example, the 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 59 yuan/ton on March 4, up 1 yuan from March 3 [9] Iron Ore - Supply and Demand: Non - mainstream ore shipments are high, and the Iran situation provides short - term support. Iron water production may first decline and then rise due to the Two Sessions' production restrictions, and low - price restocking by steel mills provides a bottom support [22] - Prices: On March 4, 2026, the closing prices of iron ore contracts decreased slightly compared to the previous day. For example, the 01 contract closed at 717.5 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan from March 3 [23] - Fundamentals: Data on daily average iron water production, port throughput, and inventory were reported. For example, the daily average iron water production on February 27, 2026, was 233.28 tons, up 2.79 tons from the previous week [27] Coal and Coke - Market Outlook: From March to April, it is the terminal demand verification period. If there is a combination of "exceeding - expected domestic mine resumption" and "weakening macro sentiment", coal and coke prices may face significant downward pressure [33] - Prices: The month - to - month spreads of coking coal and coke contracts changed. For example, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was - 203.5 yuan/ton on March 4, down 5.5 yuan from March 3 [34] - Spot and Profit: The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions and import profits were reported. For example, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal was 1520 yuan/ton on March 4, unchanged from March 3 [38] Ferroalloys - Market Outlook: Short - term silicon manganese prices are supported by manganese ore news, but high inventories may lead to hedging. Silicon iron has good fundamentals and cost support, but its upside is limited by weak downstream fundamentals [50] - Data: The daily data of silicon iron and silicon manganese, including basis, month - to - month spreads, and spot prices, were reported. For example, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was - 116 yuan/ton on March 3, down 2 yuan from March 2 [51] Soda Ash - Market Outlook: There are rumors of a major factory's overhaul. Supply may be affected, and inventory is better than expected. The upside of the price is limited by demand elasticity, and the downside requires inventory accumulation. The long - term supply is expected to be high [69] - Prices: On March 4, 2026, the closing prices of soda ash contracts decreased. For example, the 05 contract closed at 1203 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan from March 3 [70] - Spot and Spreads: The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions and price spreads were reported. For example, the heavy - soda ash market price in North China was 1250 yuan/ton on March 4, unchanged from March 3 [70] Glass - Market Outlook: Actual demand has not returned, and the market is in the recovery period. High intermediate inventory and supply return expectations limit the price upside, and demand needs to be verified [93] - Prices: On March 4, 2026, the closing prices of glass contracts decreased. For example, the 05 contract closed at 1038 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan from March 3 [94] - Sales and Production: The daily sales - to - production ratios in different regions were reported. For example, the sales - to - production ratio in Shahe on February 27, 2026, was 103 [95]