白糖产业日报-20260304

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The global sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 1.8129 billion tons, a decrease of 480,000 tons from the previous forecast; the consumption is expected to be 1.8007 billion tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons from the previous forecast; the supply surplus is 122,000 tons, a decrease of 41,000 tons from the previous forecast. The domestic sugar sales rate is slowing down year-on-year, but short - term cost support and low - valued sugar prices enhance the upward driving force of sugar prices [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main sugar futures contract is 5,308 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; the main contract position is 446,413 lots, down 7,031 lots; the number of sugar warehouse receipts is 14,585, up 124; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 95,544 lots, down 5,053 lots; the valid warehouse receipt forecast is 1,689, unchanged [2] 现货市场 - The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 3,897 yuan/ton, down 67 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 3,837 yuan/ton, down 87 yuan. The estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 4,931 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 4,853 yuan/ton, down 88 yuan. The spot price of sugar in Yunnan Kunming is 5,215 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; in Guangxi Nanning is 5,340 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Liuzhou is 5,380 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares. The planting area of sugar cane in Guangxi is 840.33 thousand hectares, an increase of 5.24 thousand hectares. The cumulative sales volume of cane sugar in Guangxi is 155.06 million tons; the cumulative output in Yunnan is 98.41 million tons, an increase of 59.18 million tons [2] Industry Situation - Brazil's total sugar exports are 2.0175 million tons, a decrease of 895,500 tons. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,438 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 1,498 yuan/ton, an increase of 81 yuan. Outside the quota (50% tariff), the price difference of Brazilian sugar is 404 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 482 yuan/ton, an increase of 101 yuan. The monthly import volume of sugar is 580,000 tons, an increase of 140,000 tons; the cumulative import volume is 4.92 million tons, an increase of 580,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 3.5904 million tons, an increase of 2.2874 million tons; the monthly output of soft drinks is 13.421 million tons, an increase of 2.964 million tons [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 10.07%, an increase of 2.02%; that of put options is also 10.07%, an increase of 2.02%. The 20 - day historical volatility is 9.26%, an increase of 0.19%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 9.42%, an increase of 0.03% [2] Industry News - The ISO predicts a decrease in global sugar production, consumption and supply surplus in the 2025/26 season. ICE raw sugar futures rose on Tuesday, but bullish sentiment was limited [2] Viewpoint Summary - The domestic sugar sales - to - production ratio is slowing down year - on - year. Considering the expected increase in sugar production in Yunnan and Guangxi and the delayed peak of sugar cane crushing, attention should be paid to the sales and production data in February. Short - term cost support and low - valued sugar prices enhance the upward driving force of sugar prices [2] Prompt Attention - There is no news today [2]