苹果产业日报-20260304

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The apple market continues to be polarized, with strong trading in the western region and weak in the east. The overall price of fruit farmers' goods is stable, but some fruit farmers are willing to lower prices. The arrival volume in the sales area has decreased, and the sales are average. It is expected that the trading of high - quality goods in the west will be active in the short term, and the price will remain stable, maintaining the polarization trend [2]. - As of February 25, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 552.92 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 19.08 million tons, and the inventory removal speed slowed down. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong decreased by 1.07% to 43.01%, and in Shaanxi decreased by 1.61% to 43.88%. The replenishment atmosphere in Shandong is average, and some fruit farmers are willing to lower prices. In Shaanxi, the number of replenishing merchants is small, and the in - warehouse trading is cold. The trading heat in Shaanxi is slightly lower than last year [2]. - In the short term, the price of the main apple futures contract continues to reach new stage highs, and price fluctuations intensify [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main apple futures contract is 10,449 yuan/ton, and the position of the main contract is 146,885 lots, a decrease of 9,219 lots compared with the previous period. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 18,366 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged above 75) is 5.25 yuan/jin, in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged above 75) is 2.4 yuan/jin, in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged above 70 semi - commodity) is 4.2 yuan/jin, and in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged above 80 first - grade secondary fruit farmers' goods) is 3.7 yuan/jin [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The annual apple output in the country is 5,128.51 million tons. The weekly average wholesale price of apples is 9.42 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg compared with the previous period; the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.36 yuan/kg. The total cold - storage inventory of apples in the country is 552.92 million tons, a decrease of 19.08 million tons compared with the previous week. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong is 0.43, a decrease of 0.01 compared with the previous period; in Shaanxi is 0.44, a decrease of 0.02 compared with the previous period. The monthly export volume of apples is 160,000 tons, an increase of 40,000 tons compared with the previous period [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import amount of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 17,753,550 US dollars, and the year - on - year increase of the monthly export amount of apples is 30.7%. The weekly profit of storage merchants for first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apples is 0.3 yuan/jin [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly wholesale price of pears is 6.69 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.12 yuan/kg compared with the previous period; the wholesale price of bananas is 6.52 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.07 yuan/kg compared with the previous period; the wholesale price of watermelons is 6.88 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.24 yuan/kg compared with the previous period. The average daily arrival volume at the morning of Guangdong Jiangmen Wholesale Market is 12.25 vehicles, a decrease of 17.95 vehicles compared with the previous period; at Guangdong Xiaqiao Wholesale Market is 15.25 vehicles, a decrease of 21.75 vehicles compared with the previous period; at Guangdong Chalong Wholesale Market is 23.25 vehicles, a decrease of 31.95 vehicles compared with the previous period [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 32.76%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 32.71%, an increase of 5.42% compared with the previous period [2].