瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20260304

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of the domestic methanol market has increased recently, with the output rising as the loss of production capacity from domestic methanol overhauls and cut - backs is less than the output from restored production capacity. The inventory of inland enterprises has slightly increased, and port inventory has basically remained stable, showing accumulation in East China and destocking in South China. It is expected that the port methanol inventory will decline next week, and the demand may continue to recover. It is recommended to wait and see due to large short - term price fluctuations affected by the Middle East situation [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2,553 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread is 119 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 802,920 lots, down 139,737 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 129,444 lots, down 33,355 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 8,931, unchanged [3]. Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2,450 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan; in Inner Mongolia, it is 1,960 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan. The East - West price difference is 490 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract is - 107 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan. The CFR price at the Chinese main port is 297 US dollars/ton, up 17 US dollars; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 330 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 328 euros/ton, up 28 euros. The price difference between the Chinese main port and Southeast Asia is - 33 US dollars/ton, up 12 US dollars [3]. Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.04 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.06 US dollars [3]. Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 1.0442 million tons, down 500 tons; at South China ports, it is 402,500 tons, up 15,000 tons. The import profit of methanol is 18.39 yuan/ton, up 50.8 yuan. The monthly import volume is 1.734 million tons, up 316,400 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 535,300 tons, up 195,000 tons. The methanol enterprise operating rate is 92.8%, up 0.73 percentage points [3]. Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 14.7%, up 2.65 percentage points; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 3.33%, down 1.06 percentage points; the acetic acid operating rate is 84.11%, down 0.49 percentage points; the MTBE operating rate is 67.22%, down 0.65 percentage points; the olefin operating rate is 84.08%, unchanged. The MTO disk profit is - 953 yuan/ton, up 295 yuan [3]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 48.32%, down 0.68 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 37.89%, up 0.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 51.43%, up 14.38 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 51.46%, up 14.38 percentage points [3]. Industry News - As of March 4, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 552,400 tons, up 17,100 tons, a 3.19% increase; the sample enterprises' orders to be delivered are 295,200 tons, up 85,500 tons, a 104.91% increase. The total port inventory of Chinese methanol is 1.4435 million tons, down 3,200 tons. East China has accumulated inventory, up 24,200 tons; South China has destocked, down 27,400 tons. As of February 26, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants is 85.32%, up 1.86 percentage points [3].