瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20260304

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The global natural rubber production area has entered the seasonal supply off - season, with firm raw material prices. After the Spring Festival, the arrival and warehousing volume of overseas goods decreased significantly, but the unexpected increase in rubber prices has raised the risk - aversion sentiment of downstream enterprises. They only replenished a small amount of goods for rigid demand, and the total outbound volume remained at a low level. The inventory in Qingdao's bonded and general trade warehouses has increased, but the increase rate has narrowed compared to the previous period. The operating rate of domestic tire enterprises has rebounded significantly, and the short - term production capacity utilization rate is still in the stage of gradual recovery, which will drive the continuous recovery of production capacity utilization. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,500 - 17,000, and the nr2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,400 - 13,800 [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 16,740 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 13,535 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is 125 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the 4 - 5 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 95 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,205 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan. The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 152,591 lots, down 7,755 lots; the position of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 63,605 lots, up 36,896 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 43,097 lots, down 1,729 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 11,304 lots, down 1,964 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 115,070 tons, unchanged; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 50,601 tons, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 16,850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 17,000 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15,730 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 15,680 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene rubber 1502 is 13,200 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene rubber BR9000 is 13,300 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan. The basis of Shanghai rubber is 15 yuan/ton, up 460 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is - 1,105 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 14,297 yuan/ton, up 71 yuan; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 797 yuan/ton, up 441 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber is 72.29 Thai baht/kg, up 0.28 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber is 67.51 Thai baht/kg, up 3.46 Thai baht. The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber is 68.8 Thai baht/kg, up 0.5 Thai baht; the market reference price of cup rubber of Thai raw rubber is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, up 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 6 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 19.93 million tons, up 3.05 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 39.63 million tons, up 9.41 million tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 29.17%, up 14.97 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires is 34.56%, up 20.32 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 47.04 days, down 0.82 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 44.09 days, down 0.34 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.71 million pieces, down 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 59.68 million pieces, up 1.29 million pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 25.88%, up 0.11 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 21.48%, up 0.08 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 25.57%, up 0.26 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 25.55%, up 0.23 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - In February 2026, the domestic heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles, a nearly 30% month - on - month decrease from January 2025 and an about 8% year - on - year decrease from 81,400 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. From January to February 2026, the cumulative sales of the domestic heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The decline in the heavy - truck industry in February 2026 is mainly due to the seasonal fluctuations during the Spring Festival. As of March 1, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 679,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,200 tons, an increase of 1.82%. The inventory in the bonded area was 118,100 tons, an increase of 6.52%; the general trade inventory was 561,800 tons, an increase of 0.89%. The warehousing rate of the sample bonded warehouses in Qingdao decreased by 6.75 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 2.39 percentage points; the warehousing rate of the general trade warehouses decreased by 8.75 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.02 percentage points [2] 3.7 Production Area Weather - From March 1 to March 7, 2026, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period. There was no red area north of the equator, and the precipitation in most other areas was at a low level, which had less impact on rubber tapping. The red areas south of the equator were mainly concentrated in Malaysia and sporadic areas in southern Indonesia, and the rainfall in most other areas was at a low level, which also had less impact on rubber tapping [2]