铂钯金期货日报-20260304

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The platinum and palladium markets continued their weak trend due to profit - taking by long positions in the gold and silver markets and the strengthening of the US dollar. The market is highly volatile in the short term, and the subsequent development of the US - Iran situation needs to be observed. It is recommended to conduct light - position trading within a narrow range [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract was 563.50 yuan/gram, a decrease of 26.85 yuan; the closing price of the palladium main contract was 433.80 yuan/gram, a decrease of 12.40 yuan. The platinum main contract's open interest was 10387.00 lots, a decrease of 277.00 lots; the palladium main contract's open interest was 3179.00 lots, an increase of 90.00 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of platinum (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 551.68 yuan/gram, a decrease of 19.22 yuan; the average spot price of palladium in the Yangtze River area was 392.00 yuan/gram, a decrease of 28.00 yuan. The basis of the platinum main contract was - 11.82 yuan/gram, an increase of 7.63 yuan; the basis of the palladium main contract was - 41.80 yuan/gram, a decrease of 15.60 yuan [2] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The non - commercial long positions of platinum in CFTC (weekly) was 9966.00 contracts, a decrease of 243.00 contracts; the non - commercial long positions of palladium in CFTC (weekly) was 3003.00 contracts, a decrease of 342.00 contracts. The total supply of platinum in 2025 was expected to be 220.40 tons, a decrease of 0.80 tons; the total supply of palladium in 2025 was expected to be 293.00 tons, a decrease of 5.00 tons. The total demand for platinum in 2025 was expected to be 261.60 tons, an increase of 25.60 tons; the total demand for palladium in 2025 was expected to be 287.00 tons, a decrease of 27.00 tons [2] 3.4 Macro Data - The US dollar index was 99.27, an increase of 0.72; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 2.13%, an increase of 1.77 percentage points; the VIX volatility index was 1.77, an increase of 0.01 [2] 3.5 Industry News - Trump's tough stance on Iran led to a stock sell - off and rising energy prices, reigniting inflation concerns. The probability of the Fed's second interest rate cut this year dropped to 50%. The Middle East conflict continued to spread. The nominee for the Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, would slowly advance the Fed's balance - sheet reduction. Fed officials had different views on interest - rate cuts depending on inflation trends. The high - tension US - Iran geopolitical situation increased market risk aversion, tightened market liquidity, and put upward pressure on the US dollar and US Treasury yields, which affected the precious metals market [2] 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - On the supply side, power shortages and insufficient capital expenditure in South Africa restricted production growth, Russia faced sanctions risks, and North American mines cut production. On the demand side, the substitution of platinum for palladium might slow down due to platinum's price exceeding palladium's. China's platinum jewelry demand reached a seven - year high due to the high gold price substitution effect, and the hydrogen energy field provided long - term support for platinum demand [2] 3.7 Key Events to Watch - On March 4th, the US ADP private employment report at 21:15 and the US ISM non - manufacturing PMI at 23:00. On March 5th, the US January trade balance data at 20:30 and the US February Challenger job - cuts number at 20:30 [2]