碳酸锂产业日报-20260304

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate market is in a stage of increasing supply and demand in the short - term. The resumption of work in demand may drive a slight reduction in industrial inventory. It is recommended to conduct short - term long - position trading at low prices with a light position and pay attention to controlling risks in trading rhythm [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data 3.1.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 153,060 yuan/ton, up 2,200 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 106,531 hands, up 22,174 hands; the position of the main contract is 339,011 hands, down 593 hands; the spread between near and far - month contracts is - 4,580 yuan/ton, down 1,440 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 37,155 hands/ton, down 600 hands [2] 3.1.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 154,000 yuan/ton, down 7,000 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 150,500 yuan/ton, down 7,000 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is 940 yuan/ton, down 9,200 yuan [2] 3.1.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 2,345 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite is 13,775 yuan/ton, down 700 yuan; the average price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 7,175 yuan/ton, down 688 yuan [2] 3.1.4 Industry Situation - Lithium carbonate production is 59,470 tons, up 2,650 tons; imports are 23,988.66 tons, up 1,933.47 tons; exports are 911.90 tons, up 152.66 tons; the enterprise operating rate is 49%, up 2 percentage points [2] 3.1.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The production of power batteries is 168,000 MWh, down 33,700 MWh; the price of lithium manganate is 52,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 122,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of cobalt - acid lithium is 400,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary materials (811 type) is 202,000 yuan/ton, down 5,000 yuan; the price of ternary materials (622 power type) is 181,500 yuan/ton, down 4,000 yuan; the price of ternary materials (523 single - crystal type) is 196,500 yuan/ton, down 4,000 yuan; the operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 0%, down 50 percentage points; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 52,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode is 0%, down 60 percentage points [2] 3.1.6 New Energy Vehicle Situation - The monthly production of new energy vehicles is 1,041,000 units, down 677,000 units; the monthly sales are 945,000 units, down 765,000 units; the cumulative sales penetration rate is 40.28%, down 7.65 percentage points; the cumulative sales are 945,000 units, up 1,000 units; the monthly export volume is 302,000 units, up 2,000 units; the cumulative export volume is 302,000 units, up 152,000 units [2] 3.1.7 Option Situation - The total call position is 157,560 contracts, up 12,097 contracts; the total put position is 148,532 contracts, down 26,048 contracts; the put - call ratio of the total position is 94.27%, down 25.7467 percentage points; the at - the - money implied volatility is 0.68%, down 0.0126 percentage points [2] 3.2 Industry News - Automobile market financial promotion methods are diverse, with over twenty car brands offering financial purchase discounts since January. Shenzhen offers subsidies for car replacement. In February, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.3 percentage points; the non - manufacturing business activity index was 49.5%, up 0.1 percentage point; the composite PMI output index was 49.5%, down 0.3 percentage points. The 2026 national passenger car market shows a special trend of differentiated growth [2] 3.3 Market Analysis - The main lithium carbonate contract fluctuates weakly, with a decrease of 2.86% at the close. The position decreases month - on - month, the spot price is higher than the futures price, and the basis weakens compared with the previous day. Overseas lithium ore supply may be affected, and the smelter operating rate will increase. The supply of lithium carbonate in China will increase. The downstream will resume work, and export demand may pick up [2]