建信期货油脂日报-20260305

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Oil and fat [1] - Report date: March 5, 2026 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review | Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | P2605 | 8988 | 9050 | 9084 | 8938 | 9002 | 20 | 0.22% | 420332 | 361707 | -9884 | | P2609 | 8668 | 9040 | 9006 | 8944 | 9024 | 26 | 0.29% | 52853 | 92208 | 3328 | | Y2605 | 8332 | 8370 | 8422 | 8322 | 8370 | 38 | 0.46% | 291264 | 658889 | 1760 | | Y2609 | 8310 | 8350 | 8398 | 8292 | 8340 | 30 | 0.36% | 69057 | 256042 | 6553 | | O1605 | 9418 | 9496 | 9577 | 9430 | 9486 | 68 | 0.72% | 195441 | 277988 | 5120 | | O1609 | 9384 | 9437 | 9494 | 9347 | 9401 | 17 | 0.18% | 26381 | 55450 | 6804 | [7] Spot Price and Basis Information - Dongguan rapeseed oil trader's quotation: Spot: OI2605 + 360; April - May: OI2605 + 280; May - July: OI2605 + 120 - East China market soybean oil basis price: First - grade soybean oil: Spot: Y05 + 280; Far - month price: March - April: Y05 + 300; March - May: Y05 + 280; April - May: Y05 + 250; June - September: Y09 + 230; Third - grade soybean oil: Y05 + 260; Degummed soybean oil: March - May: Y05 + 100 - Guangzhou Yihai 18 - degree palm oil: Y05 + 140; Dongguan factories' 24 - degree palm oil: Y05 - 40; Guangdong national standard 24 - degree palm oil: Y05 + 0 [7] Oil and Fat Comment The oil and fat sector rose and then fell with sharp price fluctuations, mainly supported by the strengthening of international crude oil futures. Reports suggest that Chinese and US officials are expected to meet this month to prepare for the meeting between the US President and the Chinese leader, alleviating concerns that the US - Israel attack on Iran might lead to the breakdown of US - China trade negotiations. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) plans to release its monthly report on March 10. Due to the uncertainties brought by the Middle East conflict, trading in the market has become more cautious. In the near future, the oil and fat market is expected to follow the trend of crude oil, with a bullish view but no chasing of high prices. Attention should be paid to the progress of US biodiesel policies and the trend of international crude oil prices. [8] Group 3: Industry News - StoneX lowered its forecast for Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season to 177.8 million tons, a reduction of 3.8 million tons or 2.09% from the previous forecast of 181.6 million tons. However, the revised production is still at a record - high level. Weather problems have caused some damage to the crops, especially the late and irregular rainfall in Rio Grande do Sul. [9] - USDA's monthly soybean crushing report shows that the soybean crushing volume in January 2026 was 227.8 million bushels, a 0.9% decrease from the previous month and a 7% increase year - on - year. This figure is slightly higher than the market expectation of 226.3 million bushels. As of the end of January 2026, the US soybean oil inventory was 2.433 billion pounds, a 11.7% increase from the previous month and a 33.9% surge year - on - year. This data also exceeds market expectations and is the highest since April 2023. [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report includes multiple data charts, such as the spot price of East China third - grade rapeseed oil, East China fourth - grade soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil, soybean oil basis change, rapeseed oil basis change, palm oil basis change, P1 - 5 spread, P5 - 9 spread, P9 - 1 spread, US dollar - Malaysian ringgit exchange rate, US dollar - Chinese yuan exchange rate. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures. [11][15][19][25][29][33]