建信期货聚烯烃日报-20260305

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: March 5, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] - Researchers: Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), Li Jie, CFA (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil), Ren Junchi (PTA, MEG), Liu Youran (Pulp), Feng Zeren (Glass and Soda Ash) [4] Group 2: Market Quotes | Futures Contract | Opening Price (yuan/ton) | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Highest Price (yuan/ton) | Lowest Price (yuan/ton) | Change (yuan/ton) | Change Rate (%) | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Plastic 2701 | 7217 | 7236 | 7300 | 7077 | 139 | 1.96 | 1960 | -248 | | Plastic 2605 | 7350 | 7355 | 7529 | 7140 | 262 | 3.69 | 381697 | -55231 | | Plastic 2609 | 7250 | 7270 | 7354 | 7095 | 169 | 2.38 | 97714 | -5101 | | PP2701 | 7158 | 7104 | 7197 | 6970 | 92 | 1.31 | 4321 | 61 | | PP2605 | 7450 | 7506 | 7646 | 7188 | 376 | 5.27 | 464543 | -38423 | | PP2609 | 7243 | 7226 | 7326 | 7046 | 145 | 2.05 | 136754 | 2123 | [5] Group 3: Market Review and Outlook - L2605 opened higher, fluctuated during the session, and closed at 7355 yuan/ton, up 262 yuan/ton (3.69%), with a trading volume of 1.38 million lots and an open interest decrease of 55,231 lots to 381,697 lots. PP2605 closed at 7506 yuan/ton, up 376 yuan, a 5.27% increase, with an open interest decrease of 38,423 lots to 464,500 lots [6]. - The current market trading core has shifted from its own fundamentals to the cost and sentiment logic driven by geopolitics, and the weight of fundamental factors has decreased temporarily [6]. - The situation in the Strait of Hormuz has further escalated. The high crude oil price will provide cost support for the polyolefin market. Coupled with the expected reduction in imports of raw materials such as methanol and propane, which will compress profits and lead to more-than-expected plant maintenance, polyolefin prices are expected to gain upward momentum in the short term [6]. - The spot price has continued to rise. Downstream buyers have replenished stocks due to fear of price increases, and traders have withheld supplies [6]. - The market still has expectations for further price increases, and the focus is highly concentrated on the duration of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which will determine the sustainability of the geopolitical risk premium [6]. Group 4: Industry News - On March 4, 2026, the inventory level of major producers was 850,000 tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons from the previous working day, a decline of 4.49%. The inventory at the same time last year was 825,000 tons [7]. - Most PE market prices increased. The LLDPE price in North China was 7,150 - 7,800 yuan/ton, in East China was 7,250 - 7,700 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7,550 - 7,850 yuan/ton [7]. - The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily referred to as 6,980 - 7,050 yuan/ton, an increase of 375 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Downstream factories rushed to buy, and the demand enthusiasm increased significantly. The actual orders of production enterprises continued to be at a premium in the auction, driving the transaction center of propylene to rise significantly, and the overall market transaction atmosphere was active [7]. - The PP futures market continued to run strongly at a high level, supporting market sentiment. The mainstream price of drawn PP in North China was 7,150 - 7,280 yuan/ton, in East China was 7,150 - 7,300 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7,350 - 7,500 yuan/ton [7]. Group 5: Data Overview - Figures include L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate [9][12][18] - Data sources include Wind and Zhuochuang Information, and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [10][12][14][16][18]