贵金属日评-20260305

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - In the medium to long - term, the major changes unseen in a century and Sino - US competition will continue to drive up the gold price. Short - term Middle East geopolitical risks are positive for the gold price but are more phased, and the precious metals sector has high volatility. It is recommended that investors participate in trading with a bullish mindset while strictly controlling positions [4]. - After the sharp drop in late January due to the Fed's suspension of interest rate cuts and Trump's nomination of a hawkish Fed chairman candidate, the precious metals sector showed strong signs of stabilizing and rebounding in February. Affected by factors such as the chaotic international trade situation, the gloomy global economic growth outlook, the Fed's loose monetary policy and rising geopolitical risks, the precious metals sector is expected to continue to rise strongly along the upward trend line since September 2025. But geopolitical conflicts usually drive short - term increases in precious metals, and investors are advised to control positions and maintain a bullish mindset. Long - hedgers can take the opportunity to establish hedging positions, and short - hedgers should appropriately reduce hedging positions [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Precious Metals Market and Outlook - Intraday Market: The military conflict between the US, Israel and Iran and Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz significantly pushed up international oil prices and inflation expectations. The market worried that inflation pressure would make it difficult for central banks such as the Fed to implement loose monetary policies, which pushed up the US dollar exchange rate and US bond yields and triggered a US dollar liquidity risk. Overnight, there was a risk - free sell - off of global financial assets. But after Europe and the US announced the protection of transportation in the Strait of Hormuz, financial market volatility eased. London gold first fell below the $5000/oz mark and then rebounded above $5150/oz [4]. - Domestic Precious Metals Market: The previous closing price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, percentage change, open interest and change in open interest of domestic precious metal futures indexes such as the Shanghai Gold Index, Shanghai Silver Index, Guangzhou Platinum Index and Guangzhou Palladium Index are provided [5]. - Medium - term Market: After the sharp drop in late January, the precious metals sector rebounded in February. The ruling of the US Federal Supreme Court on February 20 and the Middle East geopolitical risks increased the demand for gold as a safe - haven asset. The precious metals sector is expected to rise along the upward trend line, but the impact of geopolitical conflicts is short - term [6]. 2. Precious Metals Market - related Charts - Multiple charts are presented, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indexes, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indexes against Shanghai Gold Exchange T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets. All data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [8][10][16]. 3. Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - Geopolitical Events: Israel and the US attacked multiple targets in Iran, and Iran retaliated by attacking US embassies in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. The US closed relevant embassies and ordered non - emergency government personnel and their families to evacuate most parts of the Middle East. A UK air - force base in Cyprus was attacked, prompting European allies to strengthen regional defense [17]. - Fed Officials' Views: New York Fed President Williams said it was too early to judge the impact of the war on US inflation and growth. The US economy is less dependent on imported oil and can withstand energy price shocks. If inflation pressure eases as expected, the Fed will further cut interest rates. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said the Iran conflict increased the uncertainty of the US economic outlook and made the Fed's interest - rate policy more difficult to predict [17]. - IMF View: IMF First Deputy Managing Director Dan Katz said the impact of the Middle East war on the global economy depends on its duration and the damage to the region's infrastructure and industries, especially whether the rise in energy prices is short - term or long - term [17].