建信期货铁矿石日评-20260305

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint - Currently, the supply in the first quarter is relatively tight, while the demand side still faces certain policy pressures before the Two Sessions. However, the overall resumption of production is expected to accelerate. It is predicted that the iron ore price may turn from weak to strong, but the high port inventory and the expected increase in annual supply will continue to suppress the upside space of the iron ore price. One can consider deploying buy hedging or investment strategies at the lower edge of the trading range [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与后市展望 - Market Review: On March 4, the main 2605 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated strongly. After a small increase at the opening, it declined slightly and then fluctuated upward, closing at 752.0 yuan/ton, up 0.40% [7]. - Spot Market and Technical Analysis: On March 4, the main iron ore outer - market quotes were adjusted down by 0.2 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port increased by 0 - 7 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. Technically, the daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2605 contract showed a divergent trend, with the J - value turning down and the K - value and D - value continuing to rise; the green column of the daily MACD indicator of the iron ore 2605 contract narrowed for 6 consecutive trading days [9]. - Outlook: Before the Spring Festival, the shipments from Australia and Brazil significantly declined, partly due to the impact of the Australian hurricane, and rebounded after the festival. The iron ore shipments in February continued to decline overall. It is expected that the subsequent shipments may see a slight recovery, but they will remain at a relatively low level in the first quarter due to weather factors. The arrival volume in February decreased significantly compared with that in January. Considering the recent shipping situation, it is expected that the arrival volume in early March will remain low and then may recover. On the demand side, before the Spring Festival, the daily average pig iron output slightly recovered to over 2.3 million tons, and the demand remained resilient. After the festival, it continued to rise. Although February is still in the off - season for demand, the current profit performance is good. The profit per ton of steel in blast furnaces for rebar and hot - rolled coils is in the positive range. Driven by profits, the resumption of production may accelerate after the Two Sessions. In terms of inventory, steel mills replenished their stocks sufficiently before the festival, and the inventory decreased significantly after the festival. It is expected that the available days of inventory will continue to decline to around 20 days. The port inventory increased slightly in February, mainly affected by the decline in arrival volume and the low downstream production during the festival. Considering that the shipments remained low in February, it is expected that the arrival volume in March will still be at a low level, while the production rhythm of downstream steel enterprises will gradually resume. It is expected that the port inventory will fluctuate around 170 million tons, still remaining at a historical high [10][11]. 3.2 Industry News - Goldman Sachs' equity strategists said in a report that as tensions in the Middle East intensify and investors re - evaluate the capital expenditure risks related to artificial intelligence, global stock markets may face a short - term correction, but the probability of a full - blown bear market remains low. The current high valuation makes the market more vulnerable to corrections, but if an adjustment occurs, it may also provide a buying opportunity, and the risk of a deeper decline is limited. Strong economic growth, robust corporate earnings, and a healthy private - sector balance sheet should help buffer systemic risks. They still recommend diversified allocation across a wide range of regions, factors, and industries to improve risk - adjusted returns [12]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between different grades of iron ore and PB powder, the basis between iron ore spot at Qingdao Port and the May contract, the shipping volumes of iron ore from Brazil and Australia, the arrival volumes at 45 ports, domestic mine capacity utilization rates, the trading volumes of iron ore at main ports, the available days of iron ore inventory in steel mills, the inventory of imported sintered powder ore, the port iron ore inventory and the port clearance volume, the cost of pig iron without tax in sample steel mills, the blast furnace operating rate and iron - making capacity utilization rate, the electric furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate, the national daily average pig iron output, the apparent consumption of five major steel products, the weekly output of five major steel products, and the steel mill inventory of five major steel products [14][15][21]