大越期货贵金属早报-20260305

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The U.S. economic data is strong, U.S. stocks rebounded, and gold prices closed slightly higher. The three major U.S. stock indexes closed up across the board, and the three major European stock indexes stopped falling and rebounded. U.S. bond yields rose collectively, with the 10-year U.S. bond yield rising 3.65 basis points to 4.096%. The U.S. dollar index fell 0.26% to 98.80, and the offshore RMB appreciated significantly against the U.S. dollar to 6.8946. COMEX gold futures rose 0.54% to $5151.60 per ounce. The gold market is affected by multiple factors, and the Shanghai gold premium has expanded to 8 yuan/gram. With the continuous escalation of the Middle East situation, risk appetite is significantly hit, and safe-haven sentiment still provides support, leading to gold price fluctuations. It is recommended to operate in the range of 1130 - 1165 for Shanghai Gold 2604 [4]. - Silver prices rose after a pullback. The three major U.S. stock indexes closed up across the board, and the three major European stock indexes stopped falling and rebounded. U.S. bond yields rose collectively, with the 10-year U.S. bond yield rising 3.65 basis points to 4.096%. The U.S. dollar index fell 0.26% to 98.80, and the offshore RMB appreciated significantly against the U.S. dollar to 6.8946. COMEX silver futures rose 0.35% to $83.77 per ounce. Trump vowed to "spare no expense" on the Iran issue. In the afternoon, it was reported that the U.S. would provide insurance and naval escort for oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz, which led to a slump in silver prices and then a rebound. The Shanghai silver premium converged to around 2500 yuan/kilogram. With low risk appetite and safe-haven sentiment still providing support, silver prices are weak [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Previous Day Review - Gold: The U.S. economic data was strong, U.S. stocks rebounded, and gold prices closed slightly higher. The three major U.S. stock indexes closed up across the board, and the three major European stock indexes stopped falling and rebounded. U.S. bond yields rose collectively, with the 10-year U.S. bond yield rising 3.65 basis points to 4.096%. The U.S. dollar index fell 0.26% to 98.80, and the offshore RMB appreciated significantly against the U.S. dollar to 6.8946. COMEX gold futures rose 0.54% to $5151.60 per ounce [4]. - Silver: Silver prices rose after a pullback. The three major U.S. stock indexes closed up across the board, and the three major European stock indexes stopped falling and rebounded. U.S. bond yields rose collectively, with the 10-year U.S. bond yield rising 3.65 basis points to 4.096%. The U.S. dollar index fell 0.26% to 98.80, and the offshore RMB appreciated significantly against the U.S. dollar to 6.8946. COMEX silver futures rose 0.35% to $83.77 per ounce [5]. 3.2 Daily Tips - Gold: The basis of gold is -2.2, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is neutral. The gold futures warehouse receipts are 105,060 kilograms, a decrease of 27 kilograms, which is bearish. The 20-day moving average is upward, and the K-line is above the 20-day moving average, which is neutral. The main net long position is held, and the main long position increases, which is bullish [4]. - Silver: The basis of silver is -394, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts are 294,823 kilograms, a decrease of 12,661 kilograms, which is bullish. The 20-day moving average is downward, and the K-line is below the 20-day moving average, which is bearish. The main net long position is held, and the main long position decreases, which is bullish [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Time TBD: The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress of the People's Republic of China is held in Beijing. - 08:30: Australia's January goods and services trade balance. - 16:50: European Central Bank Vice President de Guindos speaks at an event of the Institute of International Finance (IIF). - 17:35: European Central Bank Governing Council member Olli Rehn also speaks at the IIF event. - 18:00: German Bundesbank President (also a member of the European Central Bank Governing Council) Nagel submits the Bundesbank's 2025 annual report. - 21:30: U.S. January trade balance, January import price index, and the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending February 28. - 01:00 the next day: European Central Bank President Lagarde delivers a "2026 Global Risk Lecture" speech in memory of Robert Mundell [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Gold: The mid-term elections are approaching, with continuous turmoil and continuous easing. There is still support at the macro - level. The risks include Trump's impact, improvement in U.S. economic expectations, significant interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and black swan events [9][10]. - Silver: Global turmoil, tense U.S.-Iran relations, a significant shadow Fed, potential determination of the new Fed chairman, rising expectations of easing, a sharp decline in the U.S. dollar, the resurgence of Trump's tariff storm, support from the photovoltaic and technology sectors for silver prices, and low spot inventory with a hot supply - shortage game are positive factors. The fading marginal impact of Trump's "escape" strategy, significant internal differences within the Fed, the Fed's suspension of interest rate cuts, deteriorating risk appetite, and optimistic expectations of Russia - Ukraine peace talks are negative factors [12][13]. 3.5 Position Data - Gold: The long position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai gold on March 4, 2026, was 155,716, a decrease of 7,826 or 4.79% compared with March 3. The short position volume was 42,969, an increase of 275 or 0.64%. The net position was 112,747, a decrease of 8,101 or 6.70% [37]. - Silver: The long position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai silver on March 4, 2026, was 273,112, a decrease of 6,135 or 2.20% compared with March 3. The short position volume was 271,108, a decrease of 6,777 or 2.44%. The net position was 2,004, an increase of 642 or 47.14% [39].