大越期货沪铜早报-20260305

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The copper price has reached a new high and is currently fluctuating at a high level. It is expected to move in a short - term shock. Attention should be paid to the Middle East events. The supply side is disturbed, the smelting enterprises have production reduction actions, and the scrap copper policy has been liberalized. The manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in the manufacturing prosperity level [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: Supply - side disturbances exist, smelting enterprises have production reduction actions, and the scrap copper policy has been liberalized. In January, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, with the manufacturing prosperity level declining; bullish [2]. - Basis: The spot price is 101,950, the basis is 290, with a premium over the futures; neutral [2]. - Inventory: On March 4, copper inventory increased by 3,850 to 261,525 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 119,054 tons to 391,529 tons compared with last week; neutral [2]. - Disk: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is running downward; bearish [2]. - Main Position: The main net position is long, and the long position decreases; bullish [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - 利多Factors: Geopolitical disturbances in Russia - Ukraine and Iran - Israel, Fed rate cuts, slow mine - end production increase, and the production reduction event in Freeport's Indonesian mining area [4]. - 利空Factors: Repeated US comprehensive tariffs and the global economy is not optimistic, and high copper prices will suppress downstream consumption [4]. Inventory - Exchange Inventory: The SHFE copper inventory increased by 119,054 tons to 391,529 tons compared with last week [2]. - Bonded Area Inventory: The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [12]. Other Indicators - Processing Fee: The processing fee has declined [14]. Supply - Demand Balance - The supply - demand balance in 2024 shows a slight surplus, and it will be in a tight balance in 2025 [18]. - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance of copper from 2018 to 2024. For example, in 2024, the production is 12.06 million tons, the import is 3.73 million tons, the export is 0.46 million tons, the apparent consumption is 15.34 million tons, the actual consumption is 15.23 million tons, and the supply - demand balance is 0.11 million tons [20].