大越期货钢材早报-20260305

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Rebar: The demand for rebar shows no improvement, inventory is rising from a low level, and traders' purchasing willingness remains weak. The real - estate industry is in a downward cycle. With the price below the 20 - day line and the 20 - day line trending downwards, and the main position being net short, the market is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to the 3020 support level [1]. - Hot - rolled Coil: The supply and demand of hot - rolled coil are both weakening, inventory is decreasing, and exports are blocked. Although the main position is net long and increasing, the market is still expected to be volatile due to weak fundamentals. Attention should be paid to the 3200 key support level and the policy guidance of the Two Sessions, which is greatly affected by macro - market sentiment [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot and Basis - Rebar: The spot price of rebar is not given, and the basis is 119, which is considered bullish [1]. - Hot - rolled Coil: The spot price of hot - rolled coil is 3220 yuan/ton, and the basis is 8, which is considered neutral [2]. Profit and Cost No relevant content is provided in the report. Capacity and Inventory - Rebar: The inventory in 35 major cities across the country is 567.76 million tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, which is considered neutral [1]. - Hot - rolled Coil: The inventory in 33 major cities across the country is 357.37 million tons, increasing both month - on - month and year - on - year, which is considered bearish [2]. Rebar Demand and Downstream - The demand for rebar shows no improvement, and the real - estate industry, a major downstream sector, is in a downward cycle, with traders' purchasing willingness remaining weak [1]. Hot - rolled Coil Demand and Downstream - The supply and demand of hot - rolled coil are both weakening, and exports are blocked, indicating a weak downstream demand situation [2]. Macro - The real - estate market is still weak, and there are domestic capacity - reduction plans that will impact the market. The hot - rolled coil market is greatly affected by macro - market sentiment and policy guidance from the Two Sessions [1][2].