大越期货沪镍、不锈钢早报-20260305

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report 2. Core Views - 沪镍: The external market rebounded and stood above the 20 - day moving average. In January, production continued to rise, and inventories at home and abroad continued to accumulate, with sufficient market supply. The nickel ore market has a strong bullish sentiment, showing a sharp contrast between strong demand in Indonesia and sluggish transactions due to cost inversion in China. The nickel - iron price rebounded, with the cost line supported and slightly shifted upward. Stainless steel consumption was poor during the Spring Festival, and inventory increased significantly. If inventory digestion is ineffective in the future, it may suppress price rebounds. New energy vehicle production and sales data met expectations, with a large month - on - month decline in the off - season. The basis is positive, inventory and the disk trend are negative, and the main position is net long but with a reduction in long positions. The conclusion is that Shanghai Nickel 2605 will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [2] - 不锈钢: The spot stainless - steel price increased. In the short term, the nickel - ore price was firm, demand in Indonesia was strong, the nickel - iron price rebounded, and the cost line was strongly supported, while the stainless - steel inventory continued to rise. The basis is positive, the inventory is neutral, and the disk trend is neutral. The conclusion is that Stainless Steel 2604 will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless - Steel Price Overview - Futures: On March 4th, the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 137,410, up 1,960 from March 3rd; the LME Nickel was 17,550, up 415; the Stainless - Steel main contract was 14,220, up 35. The nickel index on the Wuxi trading center was 137,600, up 2,050, and the cold - rolled index was 13,849, up 188 [8] - Spot: On March 4th, SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 140,550, up 450; 1 Jinchuan nickel was 144,100, up 450; 1 imported nickel was 137,050, up 500; nickel beans were 139,650, up 500. Cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel in Wuxi remained unchanged at 15,050, in Foshan it was 15,100, up 100, and in Hangzhou and Shanghai it remained unchanged at 15,050 and 15,100 respectively [8] Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of February 27th, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 60,791 tons, with the futures inventory at 53,131 tons, an increase of 2,016 tons and 673 tons respectively. On March 4th, LME nickel inventory was 287,550, a decrease of 426 from March 3rd; Shanghai Nickel warehouse receipts were 53,632, a decrease of 17; the total inventory was 341,182, a decrease of 443 [11][12] Stainless - Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On February 27th, the inventory in Wuxi was 646,700 tons, in Foshan was 377,600 tons, and the national inventory was 1,172,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 166,300 tons. Among them, the 300 - series inventory was 728,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 81,600 tons. On March 4th, the stainless - steel warehouse receipts were 51,531, unchanged from March 3rd [16][17] Nickel Ore and Nickel - Iron Prices - On March 4th, the CIF price of red clay nickel ore with a Ni1.5% grade was 74 US dollars/ wet ton, and that with a Ni0.9% grade was 31 US dollars/ wet ton, both unchanged from March 3rd. The sea freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang was 10.5 US dollars/ ton, and to Tianjin Port was 11.5 US dollars/ ton, also unchanged. The price of high - nickel wet ton was 1,085.57 yuan/ nickel point, up 0.13, and the low - nickel wet ton was 3,750 yuan/ ton, unchanged [20] Stainless - Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost of stainless steel was 14,142, the scrap - steel production cost was 14,297, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 18,022 [22] Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The imported price was converted to 137,447 yuan/ ton [25]