大越期货聚烯烃早报-20260305

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The LLDPE and PP markets are influenced by the escalation of the Middle East Iran situation, with the suspension of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz causing a significant short - term support for polyolefin valuations. The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to be broadly volatile and strong today, considering cost support, neutral inventory, and gradually recovering downstream demand. However, there are concerns about oversupply and sensitivity to marginal supply - demand changes [4][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The Iran situation has disrupted oil prices, providing strong cost support. On the supply - demand side, downstream enterprises in the agricultural film sector are resuming work slowly, and the packaging film is operating at a low load with rigid demand, expected to recover quickly around the Lantern Festival. The pipe sector is gradually resuming work. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7220 (+170), and the overall fundamentals are bullish [4]. - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is - 135, with a premium - discount ratio of - 1.8%, which is bearish [4]. - Inventory: The PE comprehensive inventory is 59.4 tons (- 3.3), which is neutral [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [4]. - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be broadly volatile and strong today [4]. - Factors: Bullish factors include cost support and the Iran situation driving up oil prices; bearish factors are the main logic of oversupply and sensitivity to marginal supply - demand changes [6]. PP Overview - Fundamentals: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The Iran situation has disrupted oil prices, providing strong cost support. On the supply - demand side, the rigid demand for plastic weaving is stable, the demand in the north is recovering quickly but with limited increase, and the BOPP sector is recovering quickly but facing pressure from some finished - product inventories. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7350 (+250), and the overall fundamentals are bullish [7]. - Basis: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is - 156, with a premium - discount ratio of - 2.1%, which is bearish [7]. - Inventory: The PP comprehensive inventory is 65.5 tons (- 8.5), which is neutral [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [7]. - Main Position: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [7]. - Expectation: The PP main contract is expected to be broadly volatile and strong today [7]. - Factors: Bullish factors include cost support and the Iran situation driving up oil prices; bearish factors are the main logic of oversupply and sensitivity to marginal supply - demand changes [8]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data - LLDPE: The spot price of delivery products is 7220, up 170; the price of the 05 contract is 7355, up 155. The warehouse receipt is 8950, down 60; the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 59.4 tons, down 3.3 tons; the PE social inventory is 673 tons, up 76 tons [9]. - PP: The spot price of delivery products is 7350, up 250; the price of the 05 contract is 7506, up 283. The warehouse receipt is 20844, down 687; the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 65.5 tons, down 8.5 tons; the PP social inventory is 345 tons, down 47 tons [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity showed an overall upward trend with different growth rates, and the import dependence decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 32.9% in 2024. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [14]. - Polypropylene: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity increased steadily, and the import dependence decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [16].