大越期货油脂早报-20260305

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The overall situation of the oil and fat market is that prices are in a state of shock consolidation, with a relatively neutral domestic fundamental situation and stable domestic oil and fat supply. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of US soybeans. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026 [2][3][4] - The main logic of the current market revolves around the relatively loose global oil and fat fundamentals. There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the tight supply of US soybeans, while negative factors include high historical oil and fat prices, continuous inventory accumulation of domestic oils and fats, weak macro - economy, and high expected production of related oils and fats [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - Soybean - related supply - On January 9, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1020000 tons, a decrease of 60000 tons from the previous period and an increase of 14.7% year - on - year [2] - The inventory of soybean meal is mentioned but no specific data is provided [8] - The oil mill's soybean crushing is mentioned but no specific data is provided [10] - Palm oil supply - On January 9, the port inventory of palm oil was 736000 tons, an increase of 2200 tons from the previous value and an increase of 46% year - on - year [3] - Rapeseed - related supply - On January 9, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250000 tons, a decrease of 20000 tons from the previous value and a decrease of 44% year - on - year [4] - The inventory of rapeseed is mentioned but no specific data is provided [21] - Total domestic oil and fat supply - The total domestic oil and fat inventory is mentioned but no specific data is provided [23] Demand - Soybean - related demand - The apparent consumption of soybean oil is mentioned but no specific data is provided [12] - The apparent consumption of soybean meal is mentioned but no specific data is provided [14] Price Forecast - Soybean oil Y2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8200 - 8600 [2] - Palm oil P2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8800 - 9200 [3] - Rapeseed oil OI2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9300 - 9700 [4]